[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 11 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 12 10:30:30 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X2.1     1622UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Mar             13 Mar             14 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: AR 2297 produced thirteen C class flares, four M class 
flares and one X class flare during the previous 24 hours. A 
M2.9 flare peaked at 00:02 UT, a M1.8 flare peaked at 07:18 UT, 
a M 2.6 flare peaked at 07:57 UT, and a M1.0 flare peaked at 
18:51 UT. The largest flare of the day, a X2.1 event, peaked 
at 16:22 UT. A Tenflare 10 cm radio frequency burst of 160 sfu 
accompanied the X2.1 flare. Radio telescopes also detected Type 
II and Type IV radio frequency bursts, indicating the launch 
of a strong CME. Cerro Tololo GONG H alpha images show clear 
chromospheric ejecta directed toward the east. SOHO LASCO observations 
are not available at the time of this report. AR 2297 is located 
at about (S15E25) and the center of the CME is probably not Earthward 
directed; however, an impact is likely in 2-3 days. ACE EPAM 
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 20:15 
UT on Mar 11. This is another precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. A solar filament erupted from 
the NW quadrant of the solar disk during 06 UT on Mar 11. SOHO 
LASCO observations show a CME traveling toward the NW during 
15-16 UT. This CME will probably not impact Earth. AR 2297 launched 
a CME early Mar 10. The ENLIL solar wind model predicts a glancing 
blow from this CME late today, Mar 12. Coronal Hole 658 has rotated 
into the geoeffective region in the Northern Hemisphere. Solar 
wind speeds will probably increase during the next 24 hours due 
to the impact of CMEs and the arrival of fast wind. A weak shock 
was observed in the solar wind at 04:25 UT on Mar 11. This may 
have been caused by the glancing blow of an earlier CME launched 
late Mar 7. The solar wind speed is about 375 km/s at the time 
of this report. The IMF Bz component briefly reached -9 nT during 
06-07 UT, but has otherwise been fluctuating mostly in the range 
-5 nT to +6 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   23213331
      Cocos Island         7   23212230
      Darwin              10   23223322
      Townsville           9   23223321
      Learmonth           10   23223330
      Alice Springs       10   13223331
      Norfolk Island       5   12222211
      Culgoora            13   25213321
      Gingin               8   23212330
      Camden               2   2-00----
      Canberra             7   13212321
      Melbourne            9   13213331
      Launceston          12   14323331
      Hobart               9   13312331    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    12   13214430
      Casey               18   35532221
      Mawson              16   24333432

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar : 
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1222 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Mar    16    Active
13 Mar    25    Active
14 Mar    20    Active

COMMENT: A weak 11-nT impulse was observed at 05:13 UT, Mar 11 
in IPS magnetometer data. This may have been caused by the arrival 
of a weak, glancing blow from a CME launched late Mar 7. Geomagnetic 
conditions were quiet to unsettled during Mar 11 because of this 
solar wind disturbance. A stronger CME is predicted to glance 
the Earth commencing late Mar 12. This may drive unsettled to 
active geomagnetic conditions during late Mar 12, and active 
conditions during the following day, Mar 13. A CME was launched 
from AR 2977 in association with a X2.1 flare peaking at 16:22 
UT on Mar 11. This CME may impact Earth and drive a minor geomagnetic 
storm during Mar 14-15.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
14 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly normal at middle latitudes 
in the Northern Hemisphere and normal to enhanced in the Southern 
Hemisphere. MUFs may be enhanced strongly at equatorial and tropical 
locations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Mar   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Mar   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Mar   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were between near predicted 
monthly values to enhanced at Australian midlatitudes during 
Mar 11. Conditions were enhanced to strongly enhanced at Cocos 
Island and Darwin. The preliminary daily T index values for these 
station were 151 and 130 respectively. Further low latitude enhancements 
are expected today, Mar 12.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    46100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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