[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 10 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 11 10:30:33 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M5.8   09/2353UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: AR 2297 produced two M class X ray flares and nine C 
class flares during the previous 24 hours. The largest event 
was a M 5.8 flare peaking at 23:53 UT on Mar 09. This was followed 
by a M 5.1 flare peaking at 03:24 UT on Mar 10. Ten flare (F10.7 
cm) radio bursts of 550 sfu and 130 sfu occurred at the time 
of these two flares, respectively. Learmonth GONG H alpha images 
recorded chromospheric ejecta associated with the M 5.8 flare. 
Learmonth solar radio telescope observations showed a strong 
Type II event followed by a Type IV event, indicative of a strong 
CME. When SOHO LASCO coronograms became available (eventually), 
they showed the bulk of the partial halo CMEs traveling toward 
the east and north east. This is consistent with the location 
of AR 2297 in the eastern hemisphere at (S16, E39). The ENLIL 
solar wind model suggests a possible glancing blow of a CME at 
about 12 UT on Mar 12. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion 
enhancement event beginning 14:15 UT on Mar 10; this is a possible 
precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. 
The possibility of AR 2297 launching a strong Earthward directed 
CME increases with each passing day as the region rotates further 
to the west (and assuming AR 2297 maintains sufficient magnetic 
complexity). GOES 15 SXI images show Coronal Hole 658 has crossed 
the central meridian in the Northern Hemisphere. The solar wind 
speed declined to about 360 km/s at the time of this report. 
The IMF Bz component fluctuated mostly in the range -5 nT to 
+6 nT, but was predominantly positive during Mar 10.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   22110001
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               4   23111001
      Townsville           4   22121002
      Learmonth            3   13110011
      Alice Springs        3   13110001
      Norfolk Island       2   12110001
      Culgoora             4   22121002
      Gingin               2   22100010
      Camden               4   22220012
      Canberra             3   22120001
      Melbourne            3   12220002
      Launceston           4   12221002
      Hobart               3   -2220001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     3   12131000
      Casey               12   44411111
      Mawson               5   22212111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar : 
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   4200 0211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Mar    16    Active
13 Mar    20    Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet today, 
Mar 11, due to declining solar wind speed and predominately weak, 
positive IMF conditions. There is an outside chance that a CME 
will glance the Earth today. Another CME is predicted to glance 
the Earth commencing during the middle of Mar 12. This may drive 
unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions during late Mar 12, 
and the following day, Mar 13.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly normal at middle latitudes 
in the Northern Hemisphere and normal to enhanced in the Southern 
Hemisphere. MUFs may be enhanced strongly at equatorial and tropical 
locations.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Mar   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Mar   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Mar   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 9 
March and is current for 10-11 Mar. HF radio propagation conditions 
were between near predicted monthly values to enhanced at Australian 
midlatitudes during Mar 10. The enhanced intervals were concentrated 
during the first half of the UT day, especially 05-10 UT. Conditions 
were enhanced to strongly enhanced at Cocos Island and Darwin. 
The preliminary daily T index values for these station were 142 
and 137 respectively. Further low latitude enhancements are expected 
today, Mar 11.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 439 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    66700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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