[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 09 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 10 10:30:31 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M4.5   1433 UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Mar             11 Mar             12 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Active Region 2297 produced 10 C-class X ray flares 
during Mar 9, as well as the largest flare of the day, a short 
duration M4.5 flare peaking at 14:33 UT. AR 2297 has a Beta-Gamma-Delta 
configuration and further strong C class flares and weak M class 
flares are likely. The CME associated with the M9.2 solar flare 
at 22:24 UT on Mar 7 may glance Earth during Mar 10-11. GONG 
H alpha images showing numerous dark filaments on the visible 
disk, two of which are rotating across the central meridian into 
the geoeffective zone. GOES 15 SXI images show Coronal Hole 658 
approaching the central meridian in the Northern Hemisphere. 
Fast solar wind emanating from CH 658 may arrive at Earth next 
weekend. The solar wind speed declined from about 600 km/s to 
about 410 km/s during Mar 9. The solar wind density has been 
gradually increasing. The IMF Bz component fluctuated mostly 
in the range -4 nT to +5 nT, but was predominantly positive during 
Mar 9.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21100101
      Cocos Island         1   21000100
      Darwin               2   21100101
      Townsville           2   21100111
      Learmonth            3   31000101
      Alice Springs        2   21100101
      Norfolk Island       2   21000111
      Culgoora             2   21100102
      Gingin               2   31000001
      Camden               3   22100111
      Canberra             2   22000001
      Melbourne            2   2210010-
      Launceston           3   22100102
      Hobart               2   22100001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   21000001
      Casey                9   43311012
      Mawson              11   54210111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar : 
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              20   (Quiet)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12   3233 4221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
12 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during Mar 9. The 
solar wind speed has been decreasing and is expected to continue 
decreasing during the next 2-4 days. The 4 day outlook is for 
mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions. The halo CME associated 
with the M9.2 solar flare late on Mar 7 may deliver a glancing 
blow during Mar 10-11. If this happens, it will drive unsettled 
to active conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly normal at middle latitudes 
in the Northern Hemisphere and normal to enhanced in the Southern 
Hemisphere. MUFs may be enhanced strongly at equatorial and tropical 
locations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Mar   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Mar   105    Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar   105    Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar   105    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly near predicted 
monthly values to enhanced at Australian mid-latitudes during 
Mar 9. However, conditions were enhanced to strongly enhanced 
at Cocos Island and Darwin. The preliminary daily T index values 
for these station were 136 and 167 respectively. Further low 
latitude enhancements are expected today, Mar 10.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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