[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 15 issued 2343 UT on 08 Mar 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 9 10:43:40 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Mar             10 Mar             11 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the 
largest event being a C2.5 flare at 0925UT from region 2297 (S16E56). 
The large M9.2 flare from region 2297 on 07Mar was partial halo 
but is not expected to be geoeffective. Bz fluctuated between 
+/-5nT over the UT day. Solar wind has remained elevated, ranging 
between 500km/s to 600km/s. Solar activity is expected to be 
Low to Moderate as region 2297 remains stable with the chance 
of M-class flares for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22234211
      Cocos Island         7   22223220
      Darwin               0   000--000
      Townsville          10   22234212
      Learmonth           14   22235322
      Alice Springs        9   22234210
      Norfolk Island       7   22223112
      Culgoora             8   22233211
      Gingin              10   22224321
      Camden              10   23234211
      Canberra             9   22234211
      Melbourne           12   23334311
      Launceston          14   23335221
      Hobart              11   23334211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    16   23335410
      Casey               21   35543212
      Mawson              21   34534421

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar : 
      Hobart              46   (Unsettled)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              44   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            44   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             18   4433 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Mar    13    Unsettled to Active
10 Mar    12    Unsettled
11 Mar    11    Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Active conditions observed over the last 24 
hours as the earth remains under the influence of a coronal hole 
high speed solar wind stream. Solar wind speed is expected to 
remain elevated for the next 3 days with mostly Unsettled conditions 
and possible Active periods for 09Mar to 10Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for low latitude locations. MUFs 
mostly normal for mid to high latitudes over the past 24 hours. 
Similar HF conditions expected for the next 3 days with possible 
MUF depressions for high and some mid latitude locations due 
to periods of elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Mar   117

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Mar   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Mar   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Mar   105    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 7 
March and is current for 8-9 Mar. Enhanced MUF's during local 
day and night for Equatorial regions and some Northern AUS regions. 
Near predicted monthly values for Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ 
and Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions forecast for the 
next 3 days with enhanced periods for Equatorial regions. Possible 
depressed periods for mid latitudes and disturbed ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 507 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   210000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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