[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 15 issued 2348 UT on 07 Mar 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 8 10:48:13 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M9.2    2225UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Mar             09 Mar             10 Mar
Activity     Moderate to High   Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with 
the largest event being a M9.2 at 2222UT. GONG H-alpha imagery 
indicates this flare originated from the vicinity of region 2297 
with an associated type II radio burst observed on the IPS Culgoora 
spectrograph and a notable short-wave-fadeout for the region. 
Bz fluctuated between +/-8nT from 00UT to 12UT. Solar wind has 
steadily risen due to minor coronal hole effects from 490km/s 
at 00UT to be ~560km/s at the time of this report. Solar activity 
is expected to be Moderate with chance of M-class flares and 
possible X-class for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33323323
      Cocos Island         8   2222331-
      Darwin               0   ---0--0-
      Townsville          13   33333322
      Learmonth           15   33323433
      Alice Springs       12   3332331-
      Norfolk Island      14   25322223
      Culgoora            12   23323323
      Gingin              11   3232332-
      Camden              12   23323323
      Canberra            10   2332232-
      Melbourne           14   33333323
      Launceston          15   33433323
      Hobart              15   33433323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    22   2454342-
      Casey               26   4554332-
      Mawson              32   3544363-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar : 
      Hobart              84   (Minor storm)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              63   (Active)
      Canberra            53   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   1232 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
09 Mar    11    Unsettled
10 Mar    13    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Unsettled conditions expected for the next 3 days with 
possible Active periods due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for low latitude locations. MUFs 
mostly normal for mid to high latitudes over the past 24 hours. 
Similar HF conditions expected for the next 3 days with possible 
MUF depressions for high and some mid latitude locations due 
to periods of elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Mar   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Mar   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Mar   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Mar   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUF's during local day and night for Equatorial 
regions and some Northern AUS regions. Near predicted monthly 
values for Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. 
Similar HF conditions forecast for the next 3 days with some 
enhanced periods for Equatorial regions. Possible depressed periods 
for mid latitudes and disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic 
regions should elevated geomagnetic conditions eventuate.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 473 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   130000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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