[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 15 issued 2352 UT on 06 Mar 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 7 10:52:57 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.1    0457UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.5    0820UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Mar             08 Mar             09 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Moderate with 
region 2297 (S17E81) the source of 2 M-class flares and some 
minor C-class events. The largest flare being a M3.0 at 0457UT 
whilst region 2292 was rounding the east limb. Bz ranged between 
+/-9nT with only a minor sustained southward period 03UT-06UT. 
Solar wind speed ranged between 400km/s and 500km/s. Solar activity 
is expected to be Low to Moderate over the next 3 days with chance 
of M-class events.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22321123
      Cocos Island         6   22211123
      Darwin               0   00-0000-
      Townsville           8   -2321123
      Learmonth           10   32321233
      Alice Springs        8   22321123
      Norfolk Island       6   12321022
      Culgoora            10   23331123
      Gingin               8   22221233
      Camden              10   23331123
      Canberra            10   23331123
      Melbourne           10   23332123
      Launceston          13   23432233
      Hobart              12   24432122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    19   13643122
      Casey               17   35432123
      Mawson              24   23632235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar : 
      Hobart              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1001 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Mar    12    Unsettled
08 Mar    14    Unsettled to Active
09 Mar    13    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 07Mar with 
possible Active periods due to potential coronal hole effects 
within the next 24-48hours. Unsettled to Active conditions for 
08Mar-09Mar should coronal hole high speed solar wind stream 
eventuate.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed for low latitude 
locations and MUFs mostly normal in other regions for the past 
24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next 24-48 
hours with minor to moderate MUF depressions for high and some 
mid latitude locations due to the possibility of a rise in geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Mar   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Mar   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Mar    95    Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUF's during local day and night for Equatorial 
regions. Near predicted monthly values for Northern AUS, Southern 
AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions forecast 
for the next 24 hours with some enhanced periods for Equatorial 
regions. Possible depressed periods for mid to high latitudes 
should increased geomagnetic conditions eventuate. MUF's expected 
to be near monthly normal values for 08Mar-09Mar with occasional 
MUF depressions of 15% for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.8E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 450 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:   139000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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