[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 05 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 6 10:30:33 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1811UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Mar             07 Mar             08 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours. 
Three C-class and one M1.2 flares (1811UT) were observed during 
this period. Bz mostly stayed positive up to around 5 nT with 
some periods of negative Bz up to -6nT. Solar wind speed remains 
slightly elevated, ranging between 400km/s-500km/s. A coronal 
hole effect may strengthen the solar wind stream from 7 March. 
Solar activity is expected to be Low with slight chance of an 
M-class event for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Mostly Quiet 
to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11113111
      Cocos Island         3   10012211
      Darwin               0   0000-000
      Townsville           5   11113212
      Learmonth            5   21103212
      Alice Springs        5   11113212
      Norfolk Island       2   10012120
      Culgoora             4   11113111
      Gingin               4   21112211
      Camden               5   21113111
      Canberra             3   11112111
      Melbourne            5   11123111
      Launceston           6   22123112
      Hobart               5   11123111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     4   00123210
      Casey               14   33522222
      Mawson              11   32322242

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar : 
      Hobart              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              54   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   2114 3113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Mar    12    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the 
last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions for the next 
2 days, and Quiet to Active conditions on the third day, may 
be expected due to a coronal hole taking geoeffective position 
around 7 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements recorded on some low latitude 
locations with MUFs mostly normal in other regions. Nearly similar 
HF conditions may be expected on 6 March. Minor to moderate MUF 
depressions may be observed on 7 and 8 March, especially on high 
and some mid latitude locations, due to the possibility of rise 
in geomagnetic activity on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Mar   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Mar   115    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 15%
07 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar    95    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements recorded on some low latitude 
locations with MUFs mostly normal in other regions. Nearly similar 
HF conditions may be expected on 6 March. Minor to moderate MUF 
depressions may be observed on 7 and 8 March, especially in Southern 
Aus/NZ regions, due to the possibility of rise in geomagnetic 
activity on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    77400 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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