[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 05 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 6 10:30:33 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1811UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours.
Three C-class and one M1.2 flares (1811UT) were observed during
this period. Bz mostly stayed positive up to around 5 nT with
some periods of negative Bz up to -6nT. Solar wind speed remains
slightly elevated, ranging between 400km/s-500km/s. A coronal
hole effect may strengthen the solar wind stream from 7 March.
Solar activity is expected to be Low with slight chance of an
M-class event for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Mostly Quiet
to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 11113111
Cocos Island 3 10012211
Darwin 0 0000-000
Townsville 5 11113212
Learmonth 5 21103212
Alice Springs 5 11113212
Norfolk Island 2 10012120
Culgoora 4 11113111
Gingin 4 21112211
Camden 5 21113111
Canberra 3 11112111
Melbourne 5 11123111
Launceston 6 22123112
Hobart 5 11123111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 00123210
Casey 14 33522222
Mawson 11 32322242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Hobart 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 54 (Unsettled)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2114 3113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Mar 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the
last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions for the next
2 days, and Quiet to Active conditions on the third day, may
be expected due to a coronal hole taking geoeffective position
around 7 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements recorded on some low latitude
locations with MUFs mostly normal in other regions. Nearly similar
HF conditions may be expected on 6 March. Minor to moderate MUF
depressions may be observed on 7 and 8 March, especially on high
and some mid latitude locations, due to the possibility of rise
in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 15%
07 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 95 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements recorded on some low latitude
locations with MUFs mostly normal in other regions. Nearly similar
HF conditions may be expected on 6 March. Minor to moderate MUF
depressions may be observed on 7 and 8 March, especially in Southern
Aus/NZ regions, due to the possibility of rise in geomagnetic
activity on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 77400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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