[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 15 issued 2338 UT on 04 Mar 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 5 10:38:53 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Mar             06 Mar             07 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region 
2292 (S08W71) the source of the largest event being a C2.8 flare 
at 1039UT. Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT for most of the UT day 
with brief sustained southward periods of -7nT between 08UT-12UT. 
Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated, ranging between 
450km/s-500km/s. Solar activity is expected to be Low with only 
the slight chance of a M-class event for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12133012
      Cocos Island         6   21133011
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville          10   --134122
      Learmonth            9   22134022
      Alice Springs        8   12134012
      Norfolk Island       6   11033022
      Culgoora             8   12134012
      Gingin               5   11133011
      Camden               8   12134012
      Canberra             5   11133001
      Melbourne            6   12133012
      Launceston           8   12143012
      Hobart               5   11133011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     7   11143011
      Casey               14   34343022
      Mawson              21   34333116

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar : 
      Hobart              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          12   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9   3322 2113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 
24 hours with Unsettled to Active conditions between 09UT-14UT 
for mid to high latitudes whilst Bz was southward during this 
period. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days 
with possible Unsettled periods. Possible Increase in activity 
on 07Mar due to minor coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal to enhanced HF conditions for Low latitudes and 
mostly normal conditions for mid latitudes. Improving HF conditions 
for high latitudes after recent geomagnetic activity. Similar 
conditions expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Mar   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Mar   105    Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar   105    Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUF's during local day and night for Equatorial 
regions. Near predicted monthly values for Northern AUS and Southern 
AUS/NZ regions. Improved ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. 
Similar conditions forecast for the next 3 days with MUF's expected 
to be at near monthly predicted values, possible depressed periods 
for mid to high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 483 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    97700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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