[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 15 issued 2338 UT on 04 Mar 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 5 10:38:53 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region
2292 (S08W71) the source of the largest event being a C2.8 flare
at 1039UT. Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT for most of the UT day
with brief sustained southward periods of -7nT between 08UT-12UT.
Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated, ranging between
450km/s-500km/s. Solar activity is expected to be Low with only
the slight chance of a M-class event for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 12133012
Cocos Island 6 21133011
Darwin - --------
Townsville 10 --134122
Learmonth 9 22134022
Alice Springs 8 12134012
Norfolk Island 6 11033022
Culgoora 8 12134012
Gingin 5 11133011
Camden 8 12134012
Canberra 5 11133001
Melbourne 6 12133012
Launceston 8 12143012
Hobart 5 11133011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
Macquarie Island 7 11143011
Casey 14 34343022
Mawson 21 34333116
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Hobart 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Darwin NA
Townsville 12 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 3322 2113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours with Unsettled to Active conditions between 09UT-14UT
for mid to high latitudes whilst Bz was southward during this
period. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days
with possible Unsettled periods. Possible Increase in activity
on 07Mar due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to enhanced HF conditions for Low latitudes and
mostly normal conditions for mid latitudes. Improving HF conditions
for high latitudes after recent geomagnetic activity. Similar
conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUF's during local day and night for Equatorial
regions. Near predicted monthly values for Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions. Improved ionospheric support for Antarctic regions.
Similar conditions forecast for the next 3 days with MUF's expected
to be at near monthly predicted values, possible depressed periods
for mid to high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 483 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 97700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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