[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 15 issued 2348 UT on 03 Mar 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 4 10:48:13 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M8.2    0135UT  probable   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Mar             05 Mar             06 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was High as region 
2290 (which has rotated past the north-west limb) was the source 
of a impulsive M8.2 flare at 0135UT as well as some minor C-class 
events. Region 2292 (S08W57) which declined in size over the 
last 24 hours was the only other flaring region of note - with 
a C1.9 flare at 0634UT. Bz ranged between +/-4nT while solar 
wind speed gradually decreased (due to declining influence of 
the recent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream) from 550km/s 
at the beginning of the UT day to be ~440km/s at the time of 
this report. Solar activity is expected to be Low with the slight 
chance of a M-class event for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22233122
      Cocos Island         6   22122122
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville           8   22233122
      Learmonth           11   32143123
      Alice Springs        8   22133122
      Norfolk Island       5   22122022
      Culgoora             8   22133122
      Gingin               9   31133123
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             7   22232122
      Melbourne            9   32233122
      Launceston          13   33343222
      Hobart               9   32233122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    14   23254111
      Casey               18   34532233
      Mawson              41   44423276

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar : 
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               9   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             24   4454 4322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 
24 hours as the effects of the recent south pole positioned coronal 
hole high speed solar wind stream recede. Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal to enhanced HF conditions for Low latitudes and 
mostly normal conditions for mid latitudes. Continued disturbed 
HF conditions for high latitudes due to recent geomagnetic activity. 
Similar conditions expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Mar    91

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Mar    95    Near predicted monthly values
05 Mar    95    Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements for Equatorial regions during 
local day and depressed MUF's during local night for Northern 
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Poor ionospheric support for 
Antarctic regions. Similar conditions forecast for the next 3 
days with MUF's expected to be at near monthly predicted values, 
with possible depressed ionospheric conditions for mid latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 593 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:   221000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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