[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 15 issued 2353 UT on 02 Mar 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 3 10:53:07 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M4/--    1931UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Mar             04 Mar             05 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Moderate with 
four M-class flares. Region 2290 (N22W91) which has now rotated 
past the north-west limb produced a M1.0 flare at 0639UT, M1.1 
at 0948UT, a M3.7 flare at 1528UT (observable from 1643UT in 
LASCO C3 imagery) and a M4.1 flare at 1931UT. Region 2292 (S09W43) 
showed signs of strong growth over the last 24 hours while region 
2293 (N06W09) declined. Bz was predominantly southward between 
00UT-07UT averaging -10nT after which its magnitude decreased 
to fluctuate between +/-5nT. Solar wind speed increased from 
475km/s at 00UT to be currently ~600km/s. Solar activity is expected 
to be Low to Moderate over the next 24 hours with Low solar activity 
expected for 04Mar-05Mar. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic 
ion enhancement event beginning 02/1710UT, which can be a precursor 
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      16   24443322
      Cocos Island        11   23333321
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville          15   24443221
      Learmonth           19   33354332
      Alice Springs       15   24443221
      Norfolk Island      12   23442221
      Culgoora            15   24443222
      Gingin              18   33444332
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra            15   24443222
      Melbourne           21   24553322
      Launceston          26   35554322
      Hobart               -   --------    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    46   35765332
      Casey               29   36553322
      Mawson              48   55644465

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar : 
      Hobart              89   (Minor storm)
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs       13   (Quiet)
      Gingin              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            43   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             25   5554 2113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
04 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Mar     6    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 1 March and 
is current for 2-3 Mar. Quiet to Active conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours due to coronal hole effects. Unsettled to Active 
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions for 04Mar-05Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements in some low to mid latitude regions 
and minor depressions and disturbed ionospheric support in high 
latitude regions were observed over the last 24 hours. Similar 
conditions are expected for the next 24-48 hours. HF conditions 
are expected to return to mostly normal levels on 4-5 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Mar   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Mar   105    Near predicted monthly values
04 Mar   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Mar   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements in Northern Aus/Equatorial regions 
during local day and minor depressions in Southern Aus/NZ regions 
were observed over the last 24 hours with otherwise near monthly 
predicted values. Poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. 
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 24-48 hours with 
improving ionospheric support for 05Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 509 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:   186000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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