[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Mar 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 2 10:30:56 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Mar             03 Mar             04 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over 
the last 24 hours. Three C-class flares were observed during 
this period, the largest being a C6.8 at 1613 UT from region 
2290 (N21W83). As expected, the solar wind speed remained strong 
due to the continued effect of the coronal. Solar wind speed 
increased up to around 600 km/s today. The Bz component of IMF 
varied between +5/-10 nT during the first half and then stayed 
close to normal values during most parts of the second half of 
the UT day. This coronal hole effect may keep the solar wind 
stream strengthened for the next three days. Currently there 
are four sunspot groups on the solar disk visible from the earth. 
Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels for the next 
three days with the possibility of C-class activity and isolated 
M-class activity. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement 
event beginning 01/1440UT, which can be a precursor to increased 
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to minor 
storm

Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   33332223
      Cocos Island         9   33321212
      Townsville          11   33332123
      Learmonth           11   33331223
      Alice Springs       11   33331223
      Norfolk Island      10   33332022
      Culgoora            11   33332123
      Gingin              14   43332323
      Canberra            13   34332123
      Melbourne           16   44342223
      Launceston          17   44442123
      

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    25   45553122
      Casey               20   45442223
      Mawson              52   46642275

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar : 
      Hobart              NA
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              46   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            41   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             32                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   1221 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Mar    22    Unsettled to minor storm
03 Mar    20    Unsettled to minor storm
04 Mar    10    Unsettled to active

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to active levels of geomagnetic activity 
with some minor storm periods, were observed today. The continued 
effect of the coronal hole solar wind stream is expected to keep 
the geomagnetic activity high up to minor storm levels on 2 and 
3 March. The activity may then gradually decline to mostly unsettled 
levels on 4 March with the possibility of isolated active periods 
on 4 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
03 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements in some low latitude regions 
and minor depressions in high latitude regions were observed 
over the last 24 hours. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may 
be observed, especially in the high and some mid latitude regions, 
on 2 and 3 March due to expected continued rise in geomagnetic 
activity levels through this period. HF conditions are expected 
to return to mostly normal levels on 4 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Mar    96

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      116
Mar      90
Apr      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
03 Mar   105    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
04 Mar   110    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements in Northern Aus/NZ regions and 
minor depressions in Southern Aus/NZ regions were observed over 
the last 24 hours. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed, 
especially in the Southern Aus/NZ regions, on 2 and 3 March due 
to expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels through 
this period. HF conditions are expected to return to mostly normal 
levels on 4 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:   14.3 p/cc  Temp:    48900 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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