[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 15 issued 2331 UT on 28 Feb 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 1 10:31:11 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Mar             02 Mar             03 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78

COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed over 
the last 24 hours. Six C-class flares were observed during this 
period, the largest being a C5.6 at 0939 UT from region 2294 
(S13W28). As expected, the solar wind speed increased as the 
coronal hole solar wind stream hit the earth. Solar wind speed 
increased from around 340 to 500 km/s today. The Bz component 
of IMF stayed close to normal values during the first half of 
the UT day and then varied approximately between +6/-10 nT during 
the remaining parts of the day today. This coronal hole effect 
may keep the solar wind stream strengthened for the next three 
days. There are three sunspot groups on the solar disk visible 
from the earth. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels 
for the next three days with the possibility of C-class activity 
and isolated M-class activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 
with isolated active periods

Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   12222333
      Cocos Island         6   11112232
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville           8   12222323
      Learmonth           10   22222333
      Alice Springs        9   12122333
      Norfolk Island       8   03222223
      Culgoora             9   22222323
      Gingin              11   21222343
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             8   11222323
      Melbourne            7   221223--
      Launceston           9   12222333
      Hobart               -   --------    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    13   01223533
      Casey               17   24532233
      Mawson              19   23322445

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb : 
      Hobart              NA
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Mar    22    Unsettled to minor storm
02 Mar    20    Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods 
                possible
03 Mar    12    Mostly unsettled, some active periods possible

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 27 February 
and is current for 28 Feb to 1 Mar. Mostly quiet to unsettled 
levels of geomagnetic activity with isolated active periods, 
were observed today. The coronal hole effect did not raise the 
activity to the expected levels (minor storm) on 28 February. 
This coronal hole effect is expected to keep the geomagnetic 
activity high up to minor storm levels on 1 March and isolated 
periods of minor storm on 2 March. The activity may then gradually 
decline to mostly unsettled levels on 3 March with the possibility 
of isolated active periods on 3 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
02 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last 
24 hours. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed, 
especially in high and some mid latitude locations, on 1 and 
2 March due to expected continued rise in geomagnetic activity 
levels through this period. HF conditions are expected to return 
to mostly normal levels on 3 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Feb   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      104
Feb      90
Mar      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Mar   105    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
02 Mar   110    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                20%
03 Mar   115    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements were recorded most parts of Aus/NZ 
regions over the last 24 hours with HF conditions mostly normal. 
Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed, especially 
in the Southern Aus/NZ regions, on 1 and 2 March due to expected 
continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels through this period. 
HF conditions are expected to return to mostly normal levels 
on 3 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 349 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:    29300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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