[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 15 issued 2353 UT on 17 Jun 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 18 09:53:19 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: NA


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jun             19 Jun             20 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   NA			NA		   NA

COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity were observed during 17 
June primarily from regions 2367(SW) and 2371(NE) with the largest 
being a C5.3 flare at 2253UT from region 2367 in the SW. Mostly 
low levels are expected for 18 June with the chance of moderate 
activity. No earthward directed CMEs were observed during 17 
June. Solar wind speeds are slowly declining and are presently 
around 400 km/s. There were sustained periods of weak southward 
IMF during 17 June. Solar wind conditions are expected to continue 
to slowly abate.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22233201
      Darwin               6   22223201
      Townsville           9   22333212
      Learmonth            8   22333201
      Alice Springs        6   12223201
      Norfolk Island       6   22223200
      Culgoora             7   22233201
      Gingin               7   22233200
      Camden               8   22333201
      Canberra             5   11223200
      Melbourne            8   22333200
      Launceston          10   22334300    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    22   12555400
      Casey                6   23222201
      Mawson              25   35643311
      Davis               64   33522329

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg       NA
           Planetary            NA                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg       NA
           Planetary            NA   3332 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun     6    Quiet
20 Jun     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to mostly quiet to 
unsettled for the next few days with the small chance of active 
periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next 
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Noted 
periods of weak returns from Antarctic ionosonde stations. Spread-F 
conditions were observed at some stations possibly resulting 
in intermittent degraded COMMS.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jun    91

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      83
Jun      86
Jul      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jun    86    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun    86    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun    86    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next 
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Spread-F 
conditions were observed at some stations possibly resulting 
in intermittent degraded COMMS.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 503 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   145000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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