[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 15 issued 2349 UT on 16 Jun 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 17 09:49:54 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jun             18 Jun             19 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity were observed during 16 
June. Mostly low levels are expected for 17 June, however, active 
regions rotating around the NE limb may produce moderate level 
flare activity. No earthward directed CMEs were observed during 
16 June however a slow moving weak CME observed during late 15 
June to 16 June and directed primarily to the SE requires further 
analysis. Solar wind speeds have remained moderately elevated 
and are presently around 500 km/s and slowly declining. Solar 
wind conditions are expected to continue to slowly abate.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22121111
      Darwin               5   22211112
      Townsville           5   22221112
      Learmonth            5   22121221
      Alice Springs        4   22121111
      Norfolk Island       4   22111112
      Culgoora             5   22121112
      Gingin               5   22121221
      Camden               5   22221111
      Canberra             3   12121100
      Melbourne            4   22121111
      Launceston           6   22222211
      Hobart               4   22221110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     7   11333110
      Casey               15   33321352
      Mawson              23   54433433
      Davis               30   54432643

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             13   2233 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jun     6    Quiet
18 Jun     5    Quiet
19 Jun     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to mostly quiet to 
unsettled for the next few days with the small chance of active 
periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next 
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Noted 
periods of weak returns from Antarctic ionosonde stations. Spread-F 
conditions were observed at some stations possibly resulting 
in intermittent degraded COMMS.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jun    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      83
Jun      86
Jul      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun    86    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun    86    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next 
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Spread-F 
conditions were observed at some stations possibly resulting 
in intermittent degraded COMMS.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 574 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   127000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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