[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 15 issued 2352 UT on 18 Jun 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 19 09:52:51 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION:GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0129UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M3.0    1739UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 151/106


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jun             20 Jun             21 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             147/101            148/102

COMMENT: Solar activity has been at moderate levels during 19 
June with an M1.2 at 0127UT from region 2365 on the west limb 
and an M3.0 at 1736UT from region 2371. Both events were associated 
with CMEs with the latter CME likely to be geoeffective pending 
further analysis. The former event was the source of an increase 
in solar energetic protons which is expected to decline below 
threshold levels over the next 24 hours. Solar wind speeds have 
continued to decline slowly and are presently below 400 km/s.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22111100
      Darwin               3   22111100
      Townsville           3   22111101
      Learmonth            4   22211200
      Alice Springs        3   22111100
      Norfolk Island       6   24211100
      Culgoora             4   22221101
      Gingin               4   22112200
      Camden               5   22221201
      Canberra             2   21111100
      Melbourne            4   22221200
      Launceston           6   32122201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     5   11232200
      Casey                8   23221312
      Mawson              14   24322423
      Davis               14   33323324

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             14   4333 3312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jun     6    Quiet
20 Jun     6    Quiet
21 Jun    30    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet 
for the next two days with increased activity expected on 21 
June with the anticipated arrival of the latter of today's CMEs. 
Storm conditions are expected with the arrival of this event.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 18 06 2015 2105UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Poor-normal
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Jun      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next 
few days with chance of isolated depressions at times. Noted 
periods of weak returns from Antarctic ionosonde stations. Spread-F 
conditions were observed at some stations possibly resulting 
in intermittent degraded COMMS. Degraded COMMS are possible during 
21 June with the anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jun    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      83
Jun      86
Jul      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jun    86    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun    86    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun    65    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 18 
June and is current for 18-19 Jun. Mostly normal conditions are 
expected over the next two days with chance of isolated depressions 
at times. Spread-F conditions were observed at some stations 
possibly resulting in intermittent degraded COMMS. Degraded COMMS 
are possible during 21 June with the anticipated increase in 
geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 479 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    77600 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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