[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jun 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 5 09:30:27 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jun             06 Jun             07 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             135/89

COMMENT: AR 2361(N16E64) is the most active region and produced 
the largest flare of the day, a C8.1 event peaking at 0947UT. 
AR 2361(N39E46) has also produced a minor C class flare late 
yesterday. ARs 2360 and 2361 have grown somehow in size and complexity 
and are showing signs of increasing potential for flare activity. 
All other regions remained stable. Solar flare activity is expected 
to be Low with a slight chance for an M-class flare in coming 
days. No noteworthy Earthward directed CMEs were recorded in 
the available SOHO/LASCO observations. Solar wind conditions 
are ambient and are expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   01000000
      Darwin               0   10000000
      Townsville           0   01100000
      Learmonth            0   00000000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Norfolk Island       0   11000000
      Culgoora             0   0110-000
      Gingin               0   00000000
      Camden               1   02100000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           0   10000100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                1   11000100
      Mawson               0   00000000
      Davis                1   01000002

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1101 1131     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jun     5    Quiet
06 Jun     7    Quiet
07 Jun     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain 
so for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Normal-fair
06 Jun      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
07 Jun      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jun    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      83
Jun      86
Jul      84

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jun    65    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across 
the Australian region on 4 Jun due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. Two new regions have emerged in the northeast and 
are showing signs of increasing potential for flare activity 
which is expected to arrest the decline in MUFs seen over the 
last few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 325 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    34300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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