[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 15 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jun 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 6 09:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with several
C-class flares all originating from active region 2361(N16E51).
There is the slight chance of Moderate activity over the next
few days primarily from this region. There were a number of CMEs
observed during 05 Jun. None of these CMEs are expected to be
geoeffective. Solar wind conditions are ambient and are expected
to remain so for the next two days, 06-07Jun. Solar wind speeds
are expected to increase slightly from late day 3, 08 Jun due
to the arrival of fast wind emanating from a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 00010000
Darwin 1 10110001
Townsville 1 11110001
Learmonth 0 00010000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Norfolk Island 0 01000000
Culgoora 1 011101-0
Gingin 0 00000000
Camden 0 01010000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 0 01000000
Mawson 0 00000002
Davis 0 00000011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 7 Quiet
07 Jun 7 Quiet
08 Jun 15 Quiet to Unsettled with possible Isolated Active
periods.
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next two days 06-07 Jun. Unsettled
conditions with isolated Active periods possible for day 3, 8
Jun should coronal hole effects eventuate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today over
the Australian region with minor to moderate MUF depressions
for Northern AUS regions. Similar levels of ionospheric support
and near monthly predicted MUF values expected for the next 3
days. Short wave fade outs may occur due to increasing potential
for flare activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 263 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 24700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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