[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 June 15 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jun 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 4 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Low levels during the UT
day, 3 Jun. All visible regions remained relatively stable and
not magnetically complex. Solar activity is expected to remain
at Low levels for the next three days. GONG Learmonth H alpha
images recorded two filaments lifting off from the Northeast
limb ~0150UT and the Northwest limb ~ 0716UT are unlikely to
be geoeffective. No other noteworthy Earthward directed CMEs
were recorded in the available SOHO/LASCO observations. Solar
wind conditions are ambient and are expected to remain so for
the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 01110000
Darwin 1 11110000
Townsville 1 11111000
Learmonth 1 01110000
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Norfolk Island 0 00010000
Culgoora 1 01111000
Gingin 0 01100000
Camden 1 01111000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 01111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00020000
Casey 3 12211100
Mawson 2 01102001
Davis 2 01211000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 5 Quiet
05 Jun 5 Quiet
06 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
so for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Poor-fair Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Poor-fair Fair-normal Normal-fair
05 Jun Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Jun Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 60 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across
the Australian region on 3 Jun. Similar levels of ionospheric
support are expected for the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 31000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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