[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jun 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 3 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with a single C1 flare.
All visible regions remained relatively stable. Solar activity
is expected to be at Very Low to Low levels for the next three
days. GONG Big Bear H alpha images recorded a small Disappearing
Solar Filament (DSF) in the SW quadrant ~1820UT. No noteworthy
Earthward directed CMEs were recorded in the available SOHO/LASCO
observations. Solar wind conditions are ambient and are expected
to remain so for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 01000000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 0 01100000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Norfolk Island 0 00000000
Culgoora 0 01100000
Gingin 0 00100000
Camden 0 00000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 22201000
Mawson 1 11100000
Davis 1 11100000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3322 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 5 Quiet
04 Jun 5 Quiet
05 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
so for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today over
Southern AUS/NZ regions. Variable ionospheric support observed
at Equatorial regions. Some periods of minor to moderate MUF
depressions for Northern AUS regions. Similar levels of ionospheric
support and near monthly predicted MUF values expected for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 41700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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