[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 15 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jun 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 2 09:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at Very Low levels during the
UT day, 01 Jun. Visible sunspot regions are small and not magnetically
complex, no significant flaring activity is expected for the
next 3 days. Two CMEs were observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery at
0536UT and 1348UT. Any associated ejecta is unlikely to be Earthward
directed. Solar wind conditions are ambient and are expected
to remain so for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11120010
Darwin 3 22120011
Townsville 2 11210011
Learmonth 3 21120020
Alice Springs 2 21110010
Norfolk Island 2 11120010
Culgoora 2 11220010
Gingin 3 21120020
Camden 2 11120010
Canberra 1 11110010
Launceston 3 12120020
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 02130000
Casey 5 22221021
Mawson 12 43322132
Davis 7 32321022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1111 0212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jun 5 Quiet
03 Jun 5 Quiet
04 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
so for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jun 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
03 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across
the Australian region during the last 24 hours due to low levels
of ionising solar flux. Similar levels of ionospheric support
are expected for the next 24 hours, improving thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 54700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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