[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 31 May 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 1 09:30:36 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jun             02 Jun             03 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed varied between 340 and 400 km/s and the Bz component 
of IMF varied between +/-5 nT during most parts of this period. 
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the 
next three days with some possibility of C-class activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100111
      Darwin               1   11100101
      Townsville           2   12100111
      Learmonth            2   11200210
      Alice Springs        1   11100100
      Norfolk Island       1   11100011
      Culgoora             1   01100111
      Gingin               2   01200210
      Camden               2   12100111
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Launceston           2   01101111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000100
      Casey                3   12210210
      Mawson               9   32311232
      Davis               10   13321241

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1111 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jun     5    Quiet
02 Jun     5    Quiet
03 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly 
similar conditions are expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
02 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
03 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed during 
the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Nearly 
similar conditions may be expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 May    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      101
May      90
Jun      88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jun    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
02 Jun    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
03 Jun    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in Aus/NZ 
regions during the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected in this 
region for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    70200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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