[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 30 09:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jul             31 Jul             01 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             107/57             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last 
24 hours. The coronal hole effect seems to be weakening. Solar 
wind speed decreased from 400 to nearly 360 km/s during the UT 
day today, whereas the Bz component of IMF varied mostly between 
+/-4 nT during this period. The effect of the coronal hole is 
expected to further weaken today. Another coronal hole is taking 
geoeffective position. It is expected to strengthen solar wind 
stream from 31 July. Very low levels of solar activity may be 
expected for the next three days (30 and 31 July, and 1 August) 
with some possibility of C-class events.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11122000
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               2   11111001
      Townsville           4   22122011
      Learmonth            2   10122000
      Alice Springs        2   11112000
      Norfolk Island       2   11022000
      Culgoora             3   11122010
      Gingin               3   11122010
      Camden               3   11122010
      Canberra             1   10012000
      Launceston           3   11122010
      Hobart               2   11001200    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   00023000
      Casey                7   33312110
      Mawson              13   23321144
      Davis                8   22421030

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   2322 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jul    20    Quiet to minor storm
01 Aug    22    Minor storm declining to unsettled.

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today. Mostly 
quiet with some possibility of unsettled periods may be expected 
on 30 July. Due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream 
from a recurring coronal hole the activity may rise to minor 
storm levels on 31 July and 1 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
31 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor
01 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor

COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 30% have been observed over 
the last 24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of 
ionising solar flux. Expect similar conditions on 30 July. Minor 
to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions 
may be expected on 31 July and 1 August due to expected rise 
in geomagnetic activity on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jul    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jul    50    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
31 Jul    45    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
01 Aug    40    20 to 35% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 30% have been seen across much 
of the Australasian region over the last 24 hours. These conditions 
are due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Expect similar 
conditions on 30 July. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and 
degradations in HF conditions may be expected on 31 July and 
1 August due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity on these 
days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    86400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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