[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 15 issued 2357 UT on 30 Jul 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 31 09:57:02 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jul             01 Aug             02 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last 
24 hours. Solar wind speed increased gradually from 350 to approximately 
450 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF varied 
mostly between +/-10 nT and Bt reached levels of 15 nT during 
this period. This is the effect of a recurrent coronal hole taking 
geoeffective position. It is expected that the solar wind stream 
will remaining elevated at around 450-500 km/s for the next two 
days (1-2 Aug).

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11112222
      Cocos Island         4   11011222
      Darwin               4   11112221
      Townsville           6   12122222
      Learmonth            7   11112233
      Alice Springs        5   11122222
      Norfolk Island       5   11112222
      Culgoora             5   11122222
      Gingin               6   10112133
      Camden               5   01122222
      Canberra             3   01112121
      Launceston           7   11123232
      Hobart               3   10101221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     4   00103131
      Casey                8   22221233
      Mawson              34   33221267
      Davis               13   13321244

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul : 
      Darwin               5   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   2211 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jul    20    Unsettled to active with minor storm periods 
                possible at high latitudes
01 Aug    16    Mostly unsettled with possible active periods
02 Aug    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 30 July and 
is current for 31 Jul to 1 Aug. Presently, there is an effect 
of recurrent coronal hole taking geoeffective position. It is 
expected to cause minor storm conditions at high latitude regions 
over the next two days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
01 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions are expected to continue 
due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Minor to moderate MUF 
depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected 
on 1 and 2 August due to expected mild rise in geomagnetic activity 
on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jul    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jul    55    Depressed 15-25%/near predicted monthly values
01 Aug    56    Depressed 15-25%/near predicted monthly values
02 Aug    56    Depressed 15-25%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 30 July 
and is current for 30 Jul to 1 Aug. MUF depressions of up to 
25% have been seen across much of the Australasian region over 
the last 24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of 
ionising solar flux. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations 
in HF conditions may be expected on 1 and 2 August due to expected 
mild rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    46100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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