[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 15 issued 2357 UT on 30 Jul 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 31 09:57:02 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jul 01 Aug 02 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed increased gradually from 350 to approximately
450 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF varied
mostly between +/-10 nT and Bt reached levels of 15 nT during
this period. This is the effect of a recurrent coronal hole taking
geoeffective position. It is expected that the solar wind stream
will remaining elevated at around 450-500 km/s for the next two
days (1-2 Aug).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 11112222
Cocos Island 4 11011222
Darwin 4 11112221
Townsville 6 12122222
Learmonth 7 11112233
Alice Springs 5 11122222
Norfolk Island 5 11112222
Culgoora 5 11122222
Gingin 6 10112133
Camden 5 01122222
Canberra 3 01112121
Launceston 7 11123232
Hobart 3 10101221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
Macquarie Island 4 00103131
Casey 8 22221233
Mawson 34 33221267
Davis 13 13321244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2211 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jul 20 Unsettled to active with minor storm periods
possible at high latitudes
01 Aug 16 Mostly unsettled with possible active periods
02 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 30 July and
is current for 31 Jul to 1 Aug. Presently, there is an effect
of recurrent coronal hole taking geoeffective position. It is
expected to cause minor storm conditions at high latitude regions
over the next two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
01 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions are expected to continue
due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Minor to moderate MUF
depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected
on 1 and 2 August due to expected mild rise in geomagnetic activity
on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jul 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jul 55 Depressed 15-25%/near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 56 Depressed 15-25%/near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 56 Depressed 15-25%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 30 July
and is current for 30 Jul to 1 Aug. MUF depressions of up to
25% have been seen across much of the Australasian region over
the last 24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of
ionising solar flux. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be expected on 1 and 2 August due to expected
mild rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 46100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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