[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 29 09:30:29 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jul             30 Jul             31 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last 
24 hours. A weak coronal hole effect is keeping the solar wind 
stream strengthened. Solar wind speed stayed between 400 and 
500 km/s and the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5 nT during 
most parts of the UT day today. The weak effect of the coronal 
hole may continue to strengthen solar wind stream on 29 July 
and possibly on 30 July. Very low levels of solar activity may 
be expected for the next three days (29, 30 and 31 July) with 
some possibility C-class events.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12223221
      Cocos Island         5   12113111
      Darwin               5   12123111
      Townsville           8   12233221
      Learmonth            8   22223222
      Alice Springs        6   12123121
      Norfolk Island       4   -2222110
      Culgoora             8   12233221
      Gingin               8   12123232
      Camden               8   12233221
      Canberra             4   02132110
      Launceston           9   12243221
      Hobart               6   11213230    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    13   01345220
      Casey               10   33323122
      Mawson              25   44333236
      Davis               15   23433224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             12   2133 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jul     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet to Unsettled levels 
today. Nearly similar levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected 
on 29 July with minor possibility of isolated Active periods. 
Activity is then expected to gradually decline to quiet levels 
during the following two days thereafter. Unsettled periods are 
possible on 30 July. Mostly quiet levels of activity may be expected 
on 31 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Fair           Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
30 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
31 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 35% have been observed over 
the last 24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of 
ionising solar flux. Expect similar conditions next three days. 
Expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on 29 July 
may result in further depressions in MUFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jul    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jul    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
30 Jul    55    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
31 Jul    55    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 27 July 
and is current for 27-29 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 35% have 
been seen across much of the Australasian region over the last 
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. Expect similar conditions next three days. Expected 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on 29 July may result 
in further depressions in MUFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 468 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:   126000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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