[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 29 09:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours. A weak coronal hole effect is keeping the solar wind
stream strengthened. Solar wind speed stayed between 400 and
500 km/s and the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5 nT during
most parts of the UT day today. The weak effect of the coronal
hole may continue to strengthen solar wind stream on 29 July
and possibly on 30 July. Very low levels of solar activity may
be expected for the next three days (29, 30 and 31 July) with
some possibility C-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 12223221
Cocos Island 5 12113111
Darwin 5 12123111
Townsville 8 12233221
Learmonth 8 22223222
Alice Springs 6 12123121
Norfolk Island 4 -2222110
Culgoora 8 12233221
Gingin 8 12123232
Camden 8 12233221
Canberra 4 02132110
Launceston 9 12243221
Hobart 6 11213230
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jul :
Macquarie Island 13 01345220
Casey 10 33323122
Mawson 25 44333236
Davis 15 23433224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 12 2133 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet to Unsettled levels
today. Nearly similar levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected
on 29 July with minor possibility of isolated Active periods.
Activity is then expected to gradually decline to quiet levels
during the following two days thereafter. Unsettled periods are
possible on 30 July. Mostly quiet levels of activity may be expected
on 31 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 35% have been observed over
the last 24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of
ionising solar flux. Expect similar conditions next three days.
Expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on 29 July
may result in further depressions in MUFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
30 Jul 55 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
31 Jul 55 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 27 July
and is current for 27-29 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 35% have
been seen across much of the Australasian region over the last
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. Expect similar conditions next three days. Expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on 29 July may result
in further depressions in MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 468 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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