[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 28 09:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours with only some B-class flares. A weak coronal hole effect
is keeping the solar wind stream strengthened. Solar wind speed
stayed between 400 and 500 km/s and the Bz component of IMF varied
between +/-5 nT during most parts of the UT day today. The weak
effect of the coronal hole may continue to strengthen solar wind
stream for the next two day. Very low levels of solar activity
may be expected for the next three days (28, 29 and 30 July)
with some possibility C-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Mostly Quiet
to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 22233111
Cocos Island 4 11222110
Darwin 6 11233111
Townsville 8 22233122
Learmonth 9 12333122
Alice Springs 7 12233112
Norfolk Island 6 12232111
Culgoora 9 32242111
Gingin 9 11243122
Camden 7 12242111
Canberra 6 31232011
Launceston 12 22253122
Hobart 5 21122-21
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
Macquarie Island 18 11464210
Casey 9 33322211
Mawson 25 34443226
Davis 12 23433212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3213 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jul 12 Unsettled to Active
30 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity mostly stayed at Quiet to Unsettled
levels with isolated Active periods observed on some locations.
Nearly similar levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected
on 28 and 30 July. Activity may increase to Active levels on
29 July due to an expected effect of a high speed solar wind
stream from a coronal hole which is also expected to have some
weaker effect on 28 and 30 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
30 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 30% have been seen over the
last 24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. Expect similar conditions next three days. Expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on 29 July may result
in further depressions in MUFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul 55 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
29 Jul 45 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
30 Jul 55 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 27 July
and is current for 27-29 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 30% have
been seen across much of the Australasian region over the last
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. Expect similar conditions next three days. Expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on 29 July may result
in further depressions in MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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