[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 28 09:30:27 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jul             29 Jul             30 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last 
24 hours with only some B-class flares. A weak coronal hole effect 
is keeping the solar wind stream strengthened. Solar wind speed 
stayed between 400 and 500 km/s and the Bz component of IMF varied 
between +/-5 nT during most parts of the UT day today. The weak 
effect of the coronal hole may continue to strengthen solar wind 
stream for the next two day. Very low levels of solar activity 
may be expected for the next three days (28, 29 and 30 July) 
with some possibility C-class events.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Mostly Quiet 
to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22233111
      Cocos Island         4   11222110
      Darwin               6   11233111
      Townsville           8   22233122
      Learmonth            9   12333122
      Alice Springs        7   12233112
      Norfolk Island       6   12232111
      Culgoora             9   32242111
      Gingin               9   11243122
      Camden               7   12242111
      Canberra             6   31232011
      Launceston          12   22253122
      Hobart               5   21122-21    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    18   11464210
      Casey                9   33322211
      Mawson              25   34443226
      Davis               12   23433212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            44   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   3213 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jul    12    Unsettled to Active
30 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity mostly stayed at Quiet to Unsettled 
levels with isolated Active periods observed on some locations. 
Nearly similar levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected 
on 28 and 30 July. Activity may increase to Active levels on 
29 July due to an expected effect of a high speed solar wind 
stream from a coronal hole which is also expected to have some 
weaker effect on 28 and 30 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor
30 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 30% have been seen over the 
last 24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. Expect similar conditions next three days. Expected 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on 29 July may result 
in further depressions in MUFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jul    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jul    55    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
29 Jul    45    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
30 Jul    55    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 27 July 
and is current for 27-29 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 30% have 
been seen across much of the Australasian region over the last 
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. Expect similar conditions next three days. Expected 
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on 29 July may result 
in further depressions in MUFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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