[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 15 issued 2352 UT on 26 Jul 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 27 09:52:06 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jul             28 Jul             29 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Active region 2389 (S11E35) produced a number of B- 
and one minor C-class flares over the UT day. Solar wind speed 
remains elevated between 400 and 500 km/s. The IMF Bz component 
was mostly neutral with sustained mild southward bias from 08-16UT. 
No Earth-directed CME's observed over the UT day Jul 26. Expect 
low solar activity next three days with the chance of isolated 
C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21121121
      Cocos Island         3   20120111
      Darwin               4   21120112
      Townsville           5   21130121
      Learmonth            5   21131121
      Alice Springs        3   21120021
      Norfolk Island       3   11120111
      Culgoora             4   21121120
      Gingin               5   31121121
      Camden               6   21131122
      Canberra             3   20------
      Launceston           6   21132121
      Hobart               2   20021100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     6   11142111
      Casey                7   32321111
      Mawson              20   62233224
      Davis               63   59332311

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   2122 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jul     6    Quiet
28 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: The low to mid latitude geomagnetic field was Quiet 
with an Unsettled period 09-12 UT in response to sustained mild 
solar wind southward Bz. At high latitudes conditions were Quiet 
to Unsettled with some Active to Minor Storm intervals observed 
early in the UT day. Expect Quiet conditions day one. Further 
coronal hole effects possible days two and three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal         Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal         Fair
28 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal         Fair
29 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal         Fair

COMMENT: Generally depressed HF propagation conditions observed 
due to low EUV radiation. Disturbance possible at high latitudes 
in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jul    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day
      and after local dawn.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day
      and after local dawn.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jul    50    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Jul    55    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
29 Jul    55    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 30% have been seen across much 
of the Australasian region over the last 24 hours. These conditions 
are due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Disturbed conditions 
also observed Antarctic region due to elevated geomagnetic activity. 
Expect similar conditions next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 417 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   109000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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