[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 15 issued 0259 UT on 26 Jul 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 26 12:59:20 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03UT/26 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
N.B. Late release due to technical issues 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jul             27 Jul             28 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: No significant X-ray activity observed July 25. Disappearing 
solar filaments reported in the SE and NW quadrants. No significant 
CME activity was observed in LASCO C2/C3 imagery. Solar wind 
speed remains moderately elevated at around 450 km/s. The IMF 
Bz component fluctuated +/-5nT about neutral with sustained intervals 
of mild Southward bias 07-11UT and 19-23UT. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to remain slightly elevated next 2-3 days due to persistent
coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12221012
      Cocos Island         3   01221011
      Darwin               4   11221012
      Townsville           5   22221022
      Learmonth            5   12221022
      Alice Springs        4   12221012
      Norfolk Island       2   11120011
      Culgoora             4   12221012
      Gingin               5   12221022
      Camden               4   12221012
      Canberra             2   01121011
      Launceston           6   12232112
      Hobart               3   11122001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     4   11232000
      Casey                8   33321022
      Mawson              24   44343245
      Davis               11   33332113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2110 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul     6    Quiet
28 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid 
latitudes and mostly Unsettled at high latitudes. Expect similar 
conditions next three days. A northern hemisphere solar coronal 
hole is now approaching the west limb while a smaller low latitude 
coronal hole is now in the western hemisphere. These two features 
are expected to maintain slightly elevated solar wind parameters 
for the next three days with the possibility of occasional geomagnetic 
disturbance.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Fair           Normal-fair    Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Fair           Normal         Normal-fair
27 Jul      Fair           Normal         Normal
28 Jul      Fair           Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Generally depressed HF propagation conditions observed 
due to low EUV radiation. Disturbance at high latitudes due to 
elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jul    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available..
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day 
      and after local dawn.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Extended periods of disturbance.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jul    45    15 to 40% below predicted monthly values
27 Jul    50    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Jul    50    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 23 July 
and is current for 24-26 Jul. IPS HF Warning 15/26 has been issued 
as a continuation of HF Warning 15/25. MUF depressions of up 
to 40% have been seen across much of the Australasian region 
over the last 24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels 
of ionising solar flux. Disturbed conditions also observed Antarctic 
region due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Expect similar conditions 
next three days

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 426 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    81100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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