[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 15 issued 2337 UT on 24 Jul 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 25 09:37:11 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jul             26 Jul             27 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: Minor X-ray activity was observed in recently numbered 
region AR2389 (S14E67), with impulsive C2 level flares at 1425UT 
and 1750UT. Disappearing solar filaments were reported at 0136 
(S44E04) and 1452UT (S42E56). No Earth-directed CME's were observed 
in the period. Background X-ray flux has increased from low to 
mid-B levels. There is potential for further C- level flares 
over the next three days. Solar wind speed remains moderately 
elevated at around 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated 
to +/-8nT over the first half of the UT day. There was a sustained 
Bz Southward bias of -3 to -5nT for several hours in the mid 
part of the UT day, after which Bz fluctuated +/-3nT to neutral 
towards the end of the day. Expect mildly elevated solar wind 
parameters for the next three days due to declining CME effects 
combined with a positive polarity coronal hole now in the NW 
quadrant and a further small equatorial coronal hole now at central 
meridian.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11113211
      Cocos Island         3   11111111
      Darwin               4   12202211
      Townsville           6   12113212
      Learmonth            6   12213212
      Alice Springs        5   11113211
      Norfolk Island       4   21102211
      Culgoora             4   11103211
      Gingin               7   22213212
      Camden               5   21113211
      Canberra             3   11003200
      Launceston           7   22104211
      Hobart               5   21103211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     5   21004201
      Casey                9   33313112
      Mawson              22   43421236
      Davis               20   33332136

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             22   3553 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul     6    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid 
latitudes with Unsettled periods 12-15UT in response to an interval 
of moderately negative IMF Bz. Mostly Unsettled conditions were 
observed at high latitudes. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
days one and two of the forecast period, with Unsettled to briefly 
Active periods possible at high latitudes. Conditions should 
decline to mostly Quiet by day three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Fair           Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jul      Fair           Normal         Normal-fair
27 Jul      Fair           Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Generally depressed HF propagation conditions observed 
due to low EUV radiation. Disturbance at high latitudes due to 
elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jul    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day and
      after local dawn.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day and 
      after local dawn.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day and 
      after local dawn.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jul    50    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jul    50    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
27 Jul    55    Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 23 July 
and is current for 24-26 Jul. IPS HF Warning 15/26 has been issued 
as a continuation of HF Warning 15/25. MUF depressions of up 
to 40% have been seen across much of the Australasian region 
over the last 24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels 
of ionising solar flux. Disturbed conditions also observed Antarctic 
region due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Further disturbance 
expected days one and two of the forecast period. Slowly increasing 
solar X-ray flux may result in some MUF recovery by day three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 446 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   148000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list