[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 15 issued 2353 UT on 23 Jul 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 24 09:53:43 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jul             25 Jul             26 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41             100/48

COMMENT: No significant X-ray activity observed. Solar wind speed 
increased from 400 to 500 km/s over the UT day. IMF Bz maintained 
a Southward bias of about -12 nT from 02 to 08UT before returning 
to a mostly neutral configuration, with brief positive and negative 
excursions. The disturbed solar wind parameters are possibly 
due to a glancing blow from the CME observed July 19. Solar X-ray 
activity is expected to be low for the next three days. Solar 
wind parameters are expected to remain moderately elevated due 
to a northern hemisphere coronal hole now moving into geoeffective 
position.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   32422221
      Cocos Island         7   22322121
      Darwin               8   22422121
      Townsville          11   33422221
      Learmonth           10   32422222
      Alice Springs       11   22522121
      Norfolk Island      10   42322221
      Culgoora             5   21------
      Gingin              10   32422222
      Camden              11   22522221
      Canberra             7   22421120
      Launceston          17   32632221
      Hobart              12   225-2221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    31   24744311
      Casey               10   33322222
      Mawson              60   77532256
      Davis               20   54333242

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           31   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7   2112 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
25 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Following a significant southward IMF excursion of -12nT 
from 02 to 08UT, the regional geomagnetic field reached Unsettled 
to Minor Storm levels at low to mid latitudes from 03 to 09UT. 
Unsettled to Major Storm levels were observed throughout the 
UT day at high latitudes. Conditions are expected to remain moderately 
disturbed for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Fair           Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jul      Fair           Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jul      Fair           Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Generally depressed HF propagation conditions observed 
due to low EUV radiation. Disturbance at high latitudes due to 
elevated geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jul    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day/night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day and after
      local dawn.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Extended periods of disturbance.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jul    55    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
25 Jul    55    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jul    55    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 23 July 
and is current for 24-26 Jul. IPS HF Warning 15/26 has been issued 
as a continuation of HF Warning 15/25. MUF depressions of up 
to 30% have been seen across much of the Australasian region 
over the last 24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels 
of ionising solar flux. Disturbed conditions also observed Antarctic 
region due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Further disturbance 
expected days one and two of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 359 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:    80200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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