[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 15 issued 2336 UT on 22 Jul 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 23 09:36:31 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jul             24 Jul             25 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: No significant X-ray activity observed. Solar wind speed 
is mildly elevated at around 400km/s. IMF Bz mostly neutral with 
minor fluctuations of +/-5nT. Further mild elevation of solar 
wind parameters is possible over the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111211
      Cocos Island         2   00111210
      Darwin               4   12111211
      Townsville           4   12111211
      Learmonth            5   11221320
      Alice Springs        3   01111211
      Norfolk Island       2   11011210
      Culgoora             3   11111211
      Gingin               4   11111320
      Camden               3   01111211
      Canberra             1   00010110
      Melbourne            3   11111211
      Launceston           4   11121211
      Hobart               1   10011010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     3   00032110
      Casey                5   12222210
      Mawson              11   22223324
      Davis                6   12322211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           10   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12   3233 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jul    12    Unsettled
24 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid 
latitudes with isolated Unsettled periods at high latitudes. 
Possible mild coronal hole effects may produce Unsettled periods 
days one and two of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Fair           Normal         Normal-fair
24 Jul      Fair           Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jul      Fair           Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Generally slightly depressed HF propagation conditions 
observed due to low EUV radiation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jul    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night and.
      after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jul    50    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
24 Jul    55    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
25 Jul    55    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 20 July 
and is current for 21-23 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 30% have 
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last 
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. IPS HF Warning 15/25 has been issued as a continuation 
of HF Warning 15/24.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    9.2 p/cc  Temp:   120000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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