[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 15 issued 2351 UT on 21 Jul 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 22 09:51:41 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jul             23 Jul             24 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: No significant solar X-ray activity observed July 21. 
Solar wind speed was mildly elevated at 350-450 km/s due to a 
small equatorial coronal hole. Solar wind parameters may become 
moderately elevated in the next 2-3 days due to a northern hemisphere 
coronal hole now at solar central meridian.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222111
      Cocos Island         5   32212011
      Darwin               0   00000000
      Townsville           7   32222122
      Learmonth            8   32322022
      Alice Springs        6   32222012
      Norfolk Island       5   31221111
      Culgoora             6   22222112
      Gingin               6   21222122
      Camden               6   22222112
      Canberra             3   21122001
      Melbourne            6   22222112
      Launceston           6   32222111
      Hobart               5   12222111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     6   11243000
      Casey                8   23322112
      Mawson              17   22333145
      Davis                8   12332122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            7   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   N/A     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jul     5    Quiet
23 Jul    12    Unsettled
24 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet with 
isolated Unsettled periods at high latitudes only. Mostly Quiet 
conditions expected next three days with periods of Unsettled 
conditions possible due to mildly enhanced solar wind parameters.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Fair           Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Fair           Normal         Normal
23 Jul      Fair           Normal         Normal
24 Jul      Fair           Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Generally slightly depressed HF propagation conditions 
observed due to low EUV radiation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jul    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jul    50    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Jul    55    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
24 Jul    60    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 20 July 
and is current for 21-23 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 30% have 
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last 
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. IPS HF Warning 15/25 has been issued as a continuation 
of HF Warning 15/24.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   N/A
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  N/A
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: N/A
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: N/A

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 289 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    17200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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