[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 15 issued 2334 UT on 20 Jul 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 21 09:34:26 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jul             22 Jul             23 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48

COMMENT: No solar X-ray flare events were observed over the UT 
day July 20. Solar wind speed increased slightly over the UT 
day but remains below 300 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field 
Bz component was mildly negative over the first half of the UT 
day, becoming moderately positive over the second half of the 
UT day. There may be little further effect from the present narrow 
equatorial coronal hole. Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions 
are possible day three due to a northern hemisphere coronal hole 
now approaching solar central meridian.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00011000
      Cocos Island         0   00101000
      Darwin               0   00000000
      Townsville           2   01111011
      Learmonth            1   00111000
      Alice Springs        0   00011000
      Norfolk Island       1   01000011
      Culgoora             1   01111000
      Gingin               1   00111000
      Camden               1   00111000
      Canberra             0   00010000
      Melbourne            1   00021000
      Launceston           1   00021100
      Hobart               1   00012000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   00031000
      Casey                3   02221001
      Mawson               2   11112100
      Davis                3   02222100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0001 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jul     5    Quiet
23 Jul    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed at all latitudes 
on July 20. Isolated Unsettled intervals possible at high latitudes 
day one of the forecast period. Mildly enhanced solar wind parameters 
possible day three with mostly Unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Generally slightly depressed HF propagation conditions 
observed due to low EUV radiation.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jul    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night and after 
      local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jul    50    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
22 Jul    50    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Jul    60    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 20 July 
and is current for 21-23 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 30% have 
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last 
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. IPS HF Warning 15/25 has been issued as a continuation 
of HF Warning 15/24.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 299 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    22300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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