[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 20 09:30:32 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity is a low levels. A long duration C1 flare
occurred beginning at 0922UT, peaking at 1040UT and ending at
1302UT. A Type II solar radio burst was seen in association with
this event. This was identified as being produced from a region
around the western limb. Gaps in the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery
prevent identification of any CME produced however given the
location a geoeffective CME is not expected to have been produced.
Three disappearing solar filaments were observed over the last
24 hours. The most significant CME seen in association was from
a DSF in the south-west quadrant of the sun lifting off between
0650UT and 0922UT. A CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery
at 0948UT likely in association with this event. It appears unlikely
to be geoeffective however Enlil solar wind model runs are current
being performed and further advice with be given in tomorrow's
report. Solar wind conditions are ambient. Solar activity is
expected to be at very low levels for the next 3 days with all
visible active regions small and magnetically simple. A coronal
hole high speed wind stream from a small equatorial coronal hole
is expected to arrive within the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 00100000
Cocos Island 0 00110000
Darwin 0 00000000
Townsville 1 01100001
Learmonth 0 00100000
Alice Springs 0 00100000
Norfolk Island 0 01000000
Culgoora 0 01100000
Gingin 0 00100000
Camden 0 01100000
Canberra 0 00000000
Melbourne 1 01110000
Launceston 0 00110000
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 2 21210010
Mawson 1 01100001
Davis 3 013100--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 12 Unsettled
21 Jul 12 Unsettled
22 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. These conditions are
expected to continue until the arrival of a coronal hole high
speed wind stream in the next 24 hours. This may cause isolated
Active periods on arrival followed by mostly Unsettled conditions
for several days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
21 Jul 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
22 Jul 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 17 July
and is current for 18-20 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 30% have
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising
solar flux.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 29200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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