[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 20 09:30:32 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jul             21 Jul             22 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity is a low levels. A long duration C1 flare 
occurred beginning at 0922UT, peaking at 1040UT and ending at 
1302UT. A Type II solar radio burst was seen in association with 
this event. This was identified as being produced from a region 
around the western limb. Gaps in the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery 
prevent identification of any CME produced however given the 
location a geoeffective CME is not expected to have been produced. 
Three disappearing solar filaments were observed over the last 
24 hours. The most significant CME seen in association was from 
a DSF in the south-west quadrant of the sun lifting off between 
0650UT and 0922UT. A CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery 
at 0948UT likely in association with this event. It appears unlikely 
to be geoeffective however Enlil solar wind model runs are current 
being performed and further advice with be given in tomorrow's 
report. Solar wind conditions are ambient. Solar activity is 
expected to be at very low levels for the next 3 days with all 
visible active regions small and magnetically simple. A coronal 
hole high speed wind stream from a small equatorial coronal hole 
is expected to arrive within the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00100000
      Cocos Island         0   00110000
      Darwin               0   00000000
      Townsville           1   01100001
      Learmonth            0   00100000
      Alice Springs        0   00100000
      Norfolk Island       0   01000000
      Culgoora             0   01100000
      Gingin               0   00100000
      Camden               0   01100000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Melbourne            1   01110000
      Launceston           0   00110000
      Hobart               0   10000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                2   21210010
      Mawson               1   01100001
      Davis                3   013100--

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1101 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jul    12    Unsettled
21 Jul    12    Unsettled
22 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. These conditions are 
expected to continue until the arrival of a coronal hole high 
speed wind stream in the next 24 hours. This may cause isolated 
Active periods on arrival followed by mostly Unsettled conditions 
for several days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jul    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jul    50    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
21 Jul    50    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
22 Jul    50    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 17 July 
and is current for 18-20 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 30% have 
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last 
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    29200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list