[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 19 09:30:26 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jul             20 Jul             21 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels with a single C1 X-ray 
flare over the last 24 hours. This was from a region around the 
western limb. All visible sunspot regions on the Sun are small 
and magnetically simple. Solar wind conditions are ambient. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low for the next 3 days. A coronal 
hole high speed solar wind stream is expected to arrive late 
on the 19th of July UT with effects lasting around 48 hours after 
arrival.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   01000010
      Cocos Island         0   00100010
      Darwin               0   00000000
      Townsville           1   11100011
      Learmonth            0   10000010
      Alice Springs        1   12000010
      Norfolk Island       0   01010000
      Culgoora             1   01010011
      Gingin               2   -1100120
      Camden               1   01011011
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Melbourne            1   01011010
      Launceston           1   01011010
      Hobart               0   00001100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   00021000
      Casey                2   12101020
      Mawson               8   01111152
      Davis               11   12211153

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              3   1121 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jul    12    Unsettled
20 Jul    12    Unsettled
21 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. These conditions are 
expected to continue until the arrival of a coronal hole high 
speed wind stream late on the 19th of July UT. This may cause 
isolated Active periods on arrival followed by mostly Unsettled 
conditions for several days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jul    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jul    55    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Jul    50    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
21 Jul    50    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 17 July 
and is current for 18-20 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 20% have 
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last 
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. IPS HF Warning 15/24 has been issued and is current 
for the next 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    68200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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