[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 18 09:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jul             19 Jul             20 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity is at very low levels with no regions 
of significance on the visible Sun. Solar wind conditions are 
ambient. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels 
for the next 3 days. A high speed solar wind stream from a small 
equatorial coronal hole is expected to produce a mild CIR arriving 
sometime on the 19th of July UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110000
      Cocos Island         0   01100000
      Darwin               0   00000000
      Townsville           2   21110011
      Learmonth            2   12101000
      Alice Springs        1   11100---
      Norfolk Island       0   11000000
      Culgoora             1   11110000
      Gingin               3   12101---
      Camden               1   11111000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Melbourne            2   11121100
      Launceston           3   11121110
      Hobart               1   01000110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   01012---
      Casey                7   23221---
      Mawson              11   33322---
      Davis               15   33322225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary              8   3232 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jul     5    Quiet
19 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
20 Jul    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. These conditions are 
expected to continue until the anticipated arrival of a coronal 
hole high speed solar wind stream sometime on the 19th of July. 
This may cause isolated Active periods as it arrives followed 
by Unsettled conditions for 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jul    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
19 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 17 July 
and is current for 18-20 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 20% have 
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last 
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. IPS HF Warning 15/24 has been issued and is current 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 489 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   177000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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