[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 17 09:30:27 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jul             18 Jul             19 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity is at very low levels with no regions 
of significance on the visible Sun. Solar wind conditions are 
mostly ambient with a somewhat elevated wind speed of around 
500 km/s. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels 
for the next 3 days. A small equatorial coronal hole is visible 
on the Sun just crossing the central meridian. It is expected 
to produce a mild CIR arriving sometime on the 19th of July UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22231110
      Cocos Island         3   1221110-
      Darwin               4   2222110-
      Townsville           6   22231111
      Learmonth            5   22221210
      Alice Springs        4   12221110
      Norfolk Island       4   22230000
      Culgoora             6   22231111
      Gingin               6   2223021-
      Camden               6   22231111
      Canberra             6   2223110-
      Melbourne            5   22230210
      Launceston           6   22231211
      Hobart               5   11123210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     6   2114010-
      Casey                9   3332121-
      Mawson              19   54432133
      Davis               23   34432226

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           12   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1211 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jul     5    Quiet
18 Jul     5    Quiet
19 Jul    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain 
so for the next 2 days. On the 18th of July a new coronal hole 
high speed wind stream is expected to produce mostly Unsettled 
conditions with a chance of isolated Active periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jul    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
18 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
19 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 14 July 
and is current for 15-17 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 20% have 
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last 
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. IPS HF Warning 15/23 has been issued and is current 
for the next day. Depressed conditions are expected for the next 
3 days and a warning is likely to be re-issued when the current 
one expires.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 513 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   269000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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