[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 16 09:30:29 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jul             17 Jul             18 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity is at very low levels with no regions 
of significance on the visible Sun. Solar wind conditions are 
mostly ambient with a somewhat elevated wind speed of around 
550 km/s. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels 
for the next 3 days with nominal solar wind conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Cocos Island         2   01111101
      Darwin               4   12112111
      Townsville           4   12212101
      Learmonth            4   21212111
      Alice Springs        2   01102101
      Norfolk Island       5   31101113
      Culgoora             2   11101101
      Gingin               4   12112111
      Camden               2   12101101
      Canberra             1   01100001
      Melbourne            3   11111111
      Launceston           3   12111111
      Hobart               1   10110010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   00002100
      Casey                7   23311112
      Mawson              14   13223235
      Davis               13   13322225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           27   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6   3210 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jul     5    Quiet
17 Jul     5    Quiet
18 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain 
so for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jul    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
18 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 14 July 
and is current for 15-17 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 20% have 
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last 
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. IPS HF Warning 15/23 has been issued and is current 
for the next 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 451 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    53800 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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