[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 15 09:30:27 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jul             16 Jul             17 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with a single C1 x-ray 
flare from region 2381(N16W73). Solar wind conditions continue 
to show the influence of a coronal hole high speed wind stream 
with speeds between 450-550 km/s and Bt up to 10nT. Bz has been 
mostly northward over the last 24 hours. Flare activity is expected 
to be very low to low over the next 3 days and solar wind conditions 
are expected to relax to nominal conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21100111
      Cocos Island         5   31111121
      Darwin               3   21101121
      Townsville           5   21211122
      Learmonth            4   31101121
      Alice Springs        2   21100021
      Norfolk Island       2   21100011
      Culgoora             2   21100111
      Gingin               3   31100010
      Camden               3   21101111
      Canberra             2   21100011
      Melbourne            2   21100111
      Launceston           3   21200111
      Hobart               1   21100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   31100000
      Casey                9   43221112
      Mawson              17   63322211
      Davis               12   53322111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             35   3555 3463     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jul     5    Quiet
16 Jul     5    Quiet
17 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet across the Australian 
region. These conditions are expected to continue for the next 
3 days with some unsettled periods possible on the 15th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jul    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 14 July 
and is current for 15-17 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 20% have 
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last 
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising 
solar flux. Flux levels are expected to drop further keeping 
MUFs depressed for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 524 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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