[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 15 09:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with a single C1 x-ray
flare from region 2381(N16W73). Solar wind conditions continue
to show the influence of a coronal hole high speed wind stream
with speeds between 450-550 km/s and Bt up to 10nT. Bz has been
mostly northward over the last 24 hours. Flare activity is expected
to be very low to low over the next 3 days and solar wind conditions
are expected to relax to nominal conditions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 21100111
Cocos Island 5 31111121
Darwin 3 21101121
Townsville 5 21211122
Learmonth 4 31101121
Alice Springs 2 21100021
Norfolk Island 2 21100011
Culgoora 2 21100111
Gingin 3 31100010
Camden 3 21101111
Canberra 2 21100011
Melbourne 2 21100111
Launceston 3 21200111
Hobart 1 21100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 31100000
Casey 9 43221112
Mawson 17 63322211
Davis 12 53322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 35 3555 3463
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 5 Quiet
16 Jul 5 Quiet
17 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet across the Australian
region. These conditions are expected to continue for the next
3 days with some unsettled periods possible on the 15th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 14 July
and is current for 15-17 Jul. MUF depressions of up to 20% have
been seen across much of the Australian region over the last
24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. Flux levels are expected to drop further keeping
MUFs depressed for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 524 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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