[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 14 09:30:29 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at very low levels which are
expected to persist for the next 3 days, with some low level
C class flares possible. A coronal hole high speed wind stream
has been in effect for much of the past 24 hours with speeds
up to 700 km/s. This is now decaying and has fallen to around
500 km/s. Bt is mildly elevated at around 10nt with Bz mostly
southward fluctuating between -5/-10nT. Solar wind conditions
are expected to relax to ambient over the next 2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 17 23444332
Cocos Island 10 22323331
Darwin 14 23343332
Townsville 20 33444432
Learmonth 19 23444342
Alice Springs 19 23444432
Norfolk Island 14 23433332
Culgoora 16 23443332
Gingin 17 23344432
Camden 17 23444332
Canberra 15 23443331
Melbourne 20 23454332
Launceston 29 34555432
Hobart 22 12345533
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
Macquarie Island 44 25566453
Casey 15 33333342
Mawson 88 57753485
Davis 45 36633372
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Melbourne 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 41
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13 3322 3234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions reached Active levels with some
Australian region stations briefly observing Minor Storms. Conditions
are expected to be Active at most of the next day with mostly
Unsettled conditions expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are likely at high
latitudes on 14 Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly averages with
some depressions in equatorial regions. Conditions are expected
to worsen over the next few days with some mild depressions possible
across the Australian region over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 587 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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