[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 14 09:30:29 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jul             15 Jul             16 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity remains at very low levels which are 
expected to persist for the next 3 days, with some low level 
C class flares possible. A coronal hole high speed wind stream 
has been in effect for much of the past 24 hours with speeds 
up to 700 km/s. This is now decaying and has fallen to around 
500 km/s. Bt is mildly elevated at around 10nt with Bz mostly 
southward fluctuating between -5/-10nT. Solar wind conditions 
are expected to relax to ambient over the next 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      17   23444332
      Cocos Island        10   22323331
      Darwin              14   23343332
      Townsville          20   33444432
      Learmonth           19   23444342
      Alice Springs       19   23444432
      Norfolk Island      14   23433332
      Culgoora            16   23443332
      Gingin              17   23344432
      Camden              17   23444332
      Canberra            15   23443331
      Melbourne           20   23454332
      Launceston          29   34555432
      Hobart              22   12345533    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    44   25566453
      Casey               15   33333342
      Mawson              88   57753485
      Davis               45   36633372

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              11   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           36   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             41                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13   3322 3234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
15 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions reached Active levels with some 
Australian region stations briefly observing Minor Storms. Conditions 
are expected to be Active at most of the next day with mostly 
Unsettled conditions expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are likely at high 
latitudes on 14 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jul    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly averages with 
some depressions in equatorial regions. Conditions are expected 
to worsen over the next few days with some mild depressions possible 
across the Australian region over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 587 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   160000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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