[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 13 09:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low.
Very low to low activity is expected for the next three days.
The solar wind speed hovered around 600 km/s while the total
IMF strength remained mostly below 5 nT. The Bz component fluctuated
mostly between +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline
gradually over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Cocos Island 5 2222120-
Darwin 6 2222221-
Townsville 7 22322221
Learmonth 9 22232232
Alice Springs 7 2232221-
Norfolk Island 6 22222121
Culgoora 7 22322221
Gingin 7 1222232-
Camden 9 22332222
Canberra 6 2222221-
Melbourne 11 22333223
Launceston 11 22333232
Hobart 8 22232222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
Macquarie Island 12 2234322-
Casey 8 2332221-
Mawson 33 45544435
Davis 26 33433554
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 69 (Active)
Canberra 61 (Active)
Melbourne 71 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25 4544 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jul 5 Quiet
15 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly across across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours, with some unsettled conditions
from 06 to 15 UT. Active to minor storm levels were reached at
times at high latitudes. Some unsettled periods are possible
on 13-Jul, but mostly quiet conditions are expected across Australia,
into 14-15 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are likely at high
latitudes on 13 Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of moderate MUF depressions were observed in
northern Australian and Cocos Island regions during the last
24 hours, with values near the monthly prediction elsewhere.
Similar conditions are expected on 13-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 596 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 272000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list