[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 13 09:30:26 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jul             14 Jul             15 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low. 
Very low to low activity is expected for the next three days. 
The solar wind speed hovered around 600 km/s while the total 
IMF strength remained mostly below 5 nT. The Bz component fluctuated 
mostly between +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline 
gradually over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22222222
      Cocos Island         5   2222120-
      Darwin               6   2222221-
      Townsville           7   22322221
      Learmonth            9   22232232
      Alice Springs        7   2232221-
      Norfolk Island       6   22222121
      Culgoora             7   22322221
      Gingin               7   1222232-
      Camden               9   22332222
      Canberra             6   2222221-
      Melbourne           11   22333223
      Launceston          11   22333232
      Hobart               8   22232222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    12   2234322-
      Casey                8   2332221-
      Mawson              33   45544435
      Davis               26   33433554

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              69   (Active)
      Canberra            61   (Active)
      Melbourne           71   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25   4544 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jul     5    Quiet
15 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly across across the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours, with some unsettled conditions 
from 06 to 15 UT. Active to minor storm levels were reached at 
times at high latitudes. Some unsettled periods are possible 
on 13-Jul, but mostly quiet conditions are expected across Australia, 
into 14-15 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are likely at high 
latitudes on 13 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jul    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Periods of moderate MUF depressions were observed in 
northern Australian and Cocos Island regions during the last 
24 hours, with values near the monthly prediction elsewhere. 
Similar conditions are expected on 13-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 596 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   272000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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