[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 15 issued 2342 UT on 11 Jul 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 12 09:42:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a single C1 flare from region 2385 (N08W57). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected to be low for
the next 3 days, with a chance of M-class flares. The ACE solar
wind speed peaked around 690 km/s and is now around 600 km/s.
The total IMF strength peaked at 23 nT after 02 UT but has since
declined to below 5 nT. The Bz component dipped as far south
as -14 nT around 02 UT, but has fluctuated between +/-7 nT since
09 UT. ACE EPAM data indicated an energetic ion enhancement event
beginning 11/0605UT, but flux levels have since reduced below
the event threshold. Solar wind speed is expected to decline
gradually over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 12 33333222
Cocos Island 9 33322121
Darwin 10 33332221
Townsville 14 33433232
Learmonth 12 33332232
Alice Springs 10 33332221
Norfolk Island 13 33433222
Culgoora 12 33333222
Gingin 11 33332231
Camden 13 33433222
Canberra 11 33333221
Melbourne 14 33333233
Launceston 16 33433333
Hobart 13 33333322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
Macquarie Island 26 34555321
Casey 13 34432221
Mawson 29 45543253
Davis 22 34433335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 68 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 1100 1145
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 15 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 9 July and
is current for 10-12 Jul. Magnetic conditions over the last 24
hours were unsettled, then briefly active before returning to
quiet levels. Minor storm levels were observed at high latitudes.
While the solar wind speed remains high, further unsettled periods
are possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are likely at high
latitudes on 12-13 Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of moderate MUF depressions were observed in
northern Australian and Cocos Island regions during the last
24 hours, with values near the monthly prediction elsewhere.
Mild geomagnetic storm effects are expected 12 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 58300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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