[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 15 issued 2342 UT on 11 Jul 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 12 09:42:27 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jul             13 Jul             14 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
a single C1 flare from region 2385 (N08W57). No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected to be low for 
the next 3 days, with a chance of M-class flares. The ACE solar 
wind speed peaked around 690 km/s and is now around 600 km/s. 
The total IMF strength peaked at 23 nT after 02 UT but has since 
declined to below 5 nT. The Bz component dipped as far south 
as -14 nT around 02 UT, but has fluctuated between +/-7 nT since 
09 UT. ACE EPAM data indicated an energetic ion enhancement event 
beginning 11/0605UT, but flux levels have since reduced below 
the event threshold. Solar wind speed is expected to decline 
gradually over the next few days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   33333222
      Cocos Island         9   33322121
      Darwin              10   33332221
      Townsville          14   33433232
      Learmonth           12   33332232
      Alice Springs       10   33332221
      Norfolk Island      13   33433222
      Culgoora            12   33333222
      Gingin              11   33332231
      Camden              13   33433222
      Canberra            11   33333221
      Melbourne           14   33333233
      Launceston          16   33433333
      Hobart              13   33333322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    26   34555321
      Casey               13   34432221
      Mawson              29   45543253
      Davis               22   34433335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           68   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   1100 1145     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jul    15    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 9 July and 
is current for 10-12 Jul. Magnetic conditions over the last 24 
hours were unsettled, then briefly active before returning to 
quiet levels. Minor storm levels were observed at high latitudes. 
While the solar wind speed remains high, further unsettled periods 
are possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are likely at high 
latitudes on 12-13 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jul    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Periods of moderate MUF depressions were observed in 
northern Australian and Cocos Island regions during the last 
24 hours, with values near the monthly prediction elsewhere. 
Mild geomagnetic storm effects are expected 12 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    58300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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