[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 15 issued 2335 UT on 10 Jul 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 11 09:35:10 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jul             12 Jul             13 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
a single C1 flare from region 2385 (N08W7). Activity is expected 
to be low for the next three days. No earth-directed CMEs were 
observed. The solar wind speed was steady around 350 km/s until 
1830 UT, then rose to a peak around 580 km/s just after 23 UT. 
The total IMF strength rose gradually from 4 to 6 nT by 18 UT 
then more steeply, peaking at 19 nT around 23 UT. The Bz component 
was mostly neutral until around 20 UT, since then varying between 
+14 to -15 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11100113
      Cocos Island         2   11100112
      Darwin               3   11100113
      Townsville           4   21100113
      Learmonth            3   11100113
      Alice Springs        3   11100113
      Norfolk Island       1   10000012
      Culgoora             3   11000113
      Gingin               3   10100023
      Camden               4   111-0113
      Canberra             1   1-000002
      Melbourne            3   11000113
      Launceston           3   21000113
      Hobart               0   10000001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   10000012
      Casey                3   22100022
      Mawson               8   32200124
      Davis                6   12310113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2311 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jul    30    Active to Minor Storm
12 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
13 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 9 July and 
is current for 10-12 Jul. Magnetic conditions were quiet across 
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. With the arrival 
of a coronal hole high speed stream late on 10-Jul, active periods 
and minor storm levels at higher latitudes are expected on 11-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Poor-fair
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are likely at high 
latitudes on 11-12 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jul    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Periods of moderate MUF depressions were observed in 
southern Australian and Cocos Island regions during the last 
24 hours, with daytime enhancements in the north. Mild geomagnetic 
storm effects are expected 11-12 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 369 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    62900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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