[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 15 issued 2335 UT on 10 Jul 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 11 09:35:10 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a single C1 flare from region 2385 (N08W7). Activity is expected
to be low for the next three days. No earth-directed CMEs were
observed. The solar wind speed was steady around 350 km/s until
1830 UT, then rose to a peak around 580 km/s just after 23 UT.
The total IMF strength rose gradually from 4 to 6 nT by 18 UT
then more steeply, peaking at 19 nT around 23 UT. The Bz component
was mostly neutral until around 20 UT, since then varying between
+14 to -15 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11100113
Cocos Island 2 11100112
Darwin 3 11100113
Townsville 4 21100113
Learmonth 3 11100113
Alice Springs 3 11100113
Norfolk Island 1 10000012
Culgoora 3 11000113
Gingin 3 10100023
Camden 4 111-0113
Canberra 1 1-000002
Melbourne 3 11000113
Launceston 3 21000113
Hobart 0 10000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 10000012
Casey 3 22100022
Mawson 8 32200124
Davis 6 12310113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2311 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 30 Active to Minor Storm
12 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
13 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 9 July and
is current for 10-12 Jul. Magnetic conditions were quiet across
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. With the arrival
of a coronal hole high speed stream late on 10-Jul, active periods
and minor storm levels at higher latitudes are expected on 11-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal-fair Normal Poor-fair
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are likely at high
latitudes on 11-12 Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of moderate MUF depressions were observed in
southern Australian and Cocos Island regions during the last
24 hours, with daytime enhancements in the north. Mild geomagnetic
storm effects are expected 11-12 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 62900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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