[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 10 09:30:27 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 122/75


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jul             11 Jul             12 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
a single C1 flare from region 2381 (N14W02). Activity is expected 
low for the next three days, with a chance of M-class flares. 
No earth-directed CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed has 
declined to ~350 km/s. The total IMF strength peaked at 5 nT 
and is now 3 nT. The Bz component mostly varied between +/-4 
nT. An increase in the solar wind speed is likely from late on 
10-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12001010
      Cocos Island         1   01010010
      Darwin               2   12101010
      Townsville           3   12102011
      Learmonth            3   12102021
      Alice Springs        2   12001010
      Norfolk Island       1   12001000
      Culgoora             3   12102111
      Gingin               2   11002020
      Camden               3   12102111
      Canberra             0   01001000
      Melbourne            2   12002110
      Launceston           2   11002110
      Hobart               2   11001201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   00002100
      Casey                6   23212120
      Mawson               9   25211120
      Davis                9   13321024

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1111 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jul    12    Quiet to active
11 Jul    25    Unsettled to minor storm
12 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 9 July and 
is current for 10-12 Jul. Magnetic conditions were quiet across 
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Continued quiet 
conditions are expected until late on 10-Jul, when coronal hole 
effects are likely to commence. Active periods and possibly storm 
levels at higher latitudes are predicted into 11-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are likely at high 
latitudes on 10-11 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jul    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Moderate nighttime MUF depressions were observed across 
the Australian region during the last 24 hours. Some sporadic-E 
observed at Cocos Island 15-17 UT. Mild geomagnetic storm effects 
are expected 11-12 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    50000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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