[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 15 issued 2329 UT on 08 Jul 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 9 09:29:34 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jul             10 Jul             11 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
a single C1 flare from region 2384 (S17E66). This region grew. 
Two small filaments lifted off the disk. No earth-directed CMEs 
were observed. Solar activity is expected to be low over the 
next three days. The solar wind declined gradually from ~420 
km/s to ~350 km/s. Total IMF strength rose slightly, peaking 
at 5 nT. Bz spent most of the period southward, but only to -4 
nT. An equatorial coronal hole is likely to bring higher wind 
speeds and stronger IMF from 10-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   01101221
      Cocos Island         1   10000210
      Darwin               2   01110111
      Townsville           4   01211222
      Learmonth            3   11110220
      Alice Springs        2   00100220
      Norfolk Island       1   00100110
      Culgoora             3   01101221
      Gingin               3   10100321
      Camden               4   11111221
      Canberra             2   01100210
      Melbourne            4   11201221
      Launceston           4   11212220
      Hobart               2   00201102    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   00221110
      Casey                5   22121221
      Mawson              15   32221444
      Davis               18   13221264

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2011 1132     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jul     5    Quiet
10 Jul    12    Quiet to active
11 Jul    25    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Continued quiet conditions are 
expected for 9 Jul, with some active periods on 10-11 Jul due 
to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
10 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
11 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Poor-fair

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are likely at high 
latitudes on 10-11 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jul    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%
10 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%
11 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Significant MUF depressions were observed in the northern 
Australian and Cocos Island regions, with nighttime enhancements 
at Niue Island. MUFs were near monthly predicted values elsewhere. 
Continued overnight MUF depressions are likely in Northern Australia.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 447 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    84500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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