[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 8 09:30:31 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jul             09 Jul             10 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
the largest event a C2 flare from region 2381 (N14E27). Four 
small filaments lifted off the disk. Solar activity is expected 
to be low to moderate over the next three days. The solar wind 
declined gradually from ~500 km/s to ~450 km/s. Further wind 
speed decline is expected during 8-9 Jul. Total IMF strength 
declined from 5 nT to 3 nT. Bz was mostly neutral. An equatorial 
coronal hole is likely to bring higher wind speeds and stronger 
IMF on 10-Jul.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Cocos Island         1   11110001
      Darwin               1   11100000
      Townsville           2   21110011
      Learmonth            2   20100012
      Alice Springs        1   10100001
      Norfolk Island       0   11000000
      Culgoora             1   11110001
      Gingin               3   21110111
      Camden               2   11111001
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Melbourne            2   10111011
      Launceston           2   20111101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   10011000
      Casey                7   33211121
      Mawson              13   32321035
      Davis               11   22320025

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           13   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   4531 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jul     5    Quiet
09 Jul     5    Quiet
10 Jul    12    Quiet to active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Continued quiet conditions are 
expected for 8-9 Jul, with some active periods on 10-Jul due 
to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are likely at high 
latitudes on 10-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Jul    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions were observed in the northern 
Australian and Cocos Island regions, with MUFs near monthly predicted 
values elsewhere. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 491 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   146000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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