[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 8 09:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
the largest event a C2 flare from region 2381 (N14E27). Four
small filaments lifted off the disk. Solar activity is expected
to be low to moderate over the next three days. The solar wind
declined gradually from ~500 km/s to ~450 km/s. Further wind
speed decline is expected during 8-9 Jul. Total IMF strength
declined from 5 nT to 3 nT. Bz was mostly neutral. An equatorial
coronal hole is likely to bring higher wind speeds and stronger
IMF on 10-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 11110001
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 2 21110011
Learmonth 2 20100012
Alice Springs 1 10100001
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora 1 11110001
Gingin 3 21110111
Camden 2 11111001
Canberra 0 10000000
Melbourne 2 10111011
Launceston 2 20111101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 10011000
Casey 7 33211121
Mawson 13 32321035
Davis 11 22320025
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 4531 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 5 Quiet
09 Jul 5 Quiet
10 Jul 12 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Continued quiet conditions are
expected for 8-9 Jul, with some active periods on 10-Jul due
to coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are likely at high
latitudes on 10-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions were observed in the northern
Australian and Cocos Island regions, with MUFs near monthly predicted
values elsewhere. Similar conditions are expected for the next
three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 491 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list