[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 15 issued 2335 UT on 06 Jul 2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 7 09:35:07 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  C9.0    0846UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.7    2040UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jul             08 Jul             09 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was moderate, 
with several C-class flares and two M-class flares, the largest 
being an M1 from region 2381 (N15E43), peaking at 06/2040 UT. 
Region 2381 showed continued growth. Region 2367 (S20) which 
previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 7 Jul. 
A nearby CME was evident in SDO imagery at 06/1325 UT, but is 
unlikely to be geoeffective. Low to moderate activity is expected 
for the next three days. The solar wind speed has remained around 
500 km/s, the total IMF strength at around 5 nT and Bz mostly 
neutral since around 08 UT, with some mild southward excursions 
earlier. A brief spike in total IMF strength to 8 nT occurred 
just after 23 UT. A gradual decline of the solar wind speed is 
likely over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   33321121
      Cocos Island         4   2-310020
      Darwin               6   33211120
      Townsville           8   33321121
      Learmonth            9   33321130
      Alice Springs        7   23321120
      Norfolk Island       8   33321021
      Culgoora             8   33321121
      Gingin               6   22222130
      Camden               7   23321121
      Canberra             5   22321020
      Melbourne           10   33422121
      Launceston          12   33432122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    13   23533120
      Casey                9   33321131
      Mawson              33   65441161
      Davis               28   55431161

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              16   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           13   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             22   5523 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jul     5    Quiet
09 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet after an early 
unsettled period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 
for 7-Jul, with quiet conditions likely 8-9 Jul as the solar 
wind speed declines.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Some mild depressions likely in southern hemisphere 
7-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jul    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Moderate overnight MUF depressions were observed in 
the northern Australian and equatorial regions, with MUFs near 
monthly predicted values elsewhere. Similar conditions are expected 
for 7-Jul with MUFs near predicted monthly values 8-9 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 498 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   179000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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