[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 6 09:30:26 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul:  Very low

Flares: B class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jul             07 Jul             08 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 5 Jul UT. AR 
2381 produced a long-lived increase in X-ray intensity almost 
peaking at the C class level during 18 UT. Solar flare activity 
is expected to be low today, 6 Jul. The fast solar wind currently 
impacting Earth fluctuated in the range 400-600 km/s and is about 
500 km/s at the time of this report. The magnitude of the IMF 
steadily decreased from about 15 nT to 5 nT during 5 Jul. The 
IMF Bz component decreased to about -12 nT during 02 UT. The 
subsequent Bz southward excursions have been brief and weak. 
Fast solar wind with weak Bz southward excursions will continue 
today, 6 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   44232322
      Cocos Island        10   33232222
      Darwin              13   44232222
      Townsville          14   44232322
      Learmonth           15   44332232
      Alice Springs       12   34232322
      Norfolk Island      10   34231221
      Culgoora            14   44232322
      Gingin              14   43332332
      Camden              13   44232321
      Canberra             8   33131211
      Melbourne           15   44242322
      Launceston          16   44243322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    18   34353322
      Casey               13   43332223
      Mawson              50   56553237
      Davis               26   43433246

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              15   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            7   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             29   1211 4475     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jul    12    Unsettled
07 Jul     6    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The arrival of fast solar wind during the second half 
of 4 Jul UT caused a short duration G2 class geomagnetic storm 
during early 5 Jul. Kp reached 6 during the 00-03 UT and the 
Australian region Dst index decreased to -115 nT during 04 UT 
on 5 Jul. Fast solar wind is still impacting Earth. However, 
the magnitude of the IMF has decreased to 5 nT. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be unsettled during 6 Jul and quiet 
during 7 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were enhanced 
in the Northern Hemisphere and near predicted monthly values 
in the Southern Hemisphere during 5 Jul. These conditions were 
enhanced relative to the previous week, a positive effect of 
the G2 class geomagnetic storm which started late 4 Jul, continuing 
into early 5 Jul. Conditions are expected to return to near predicted 
monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere and slightly depressed 
in the Southern Hemisphere during the next 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jul    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near predicted 
monthly values throughout the Australian region during 5 Jul. 
These conditions were enhanced relative to the previous week, 
a positive effect of the G2 class geomagnetic storm occurring 
during 4-5 Jul. The conditions were more strongly enhanced at 
midlatitude stations. For example, preliminary T indices were 
102 at Brisbane and 65 at Cocos Island. Similar conditions are 
expected today, 6 Jul, though trending back toward mildly depressed, 
especially at low latitude stations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    8.9 p/cc  Temp:    71700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list