[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 6 09:30:26 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: Very low
Flares: B class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was very low during 5 Jul UT. AR
2381 produced a long-lived increase in X-ray intensity almost
peaking at the C class level during 18 UT. Solar flare activity
is expected to be low today, 6 Jul. The fast solar wind currently
impacting Earth fluctuated in the range 400-600 km/s and is about
500 km/s at the time of this report. The magnitude of the IMF
steadily decreased from about 15 nT to 5 nT during 5 Jul. The
IMF Bz component decreased to about -12 nT during 02 UT. The
subsequent Bz southward excursions have been brief and weak.
Fast solar wind with weak Bz southward excursions will continue
today, 6 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 14 44232322
Cocos Island 10 33232222
Darwin 13 44232222
Townsville 14 44232322
Learmonth 15 44332232
Alice Springs 12 34232322
Norfolk Island 10 34231221
Culgoora 14 44232322
Gingin 14 43332332
Camden 13 44232321
Canberra 8 33131211
Melbourne 15 44242322
Launceston 16 44243322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
Macquarie Island 18 34353322
Casey 13 43332223
Mawson 50 56553237
Davis 26 43433246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 29 1211 4475
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 12 Unsettled
07 Jul 6 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The arrival of fast solar wind during the second half
of 4 Jul UT caused a short duration G2 class geomagnetic storm
during early 5 Jul. Kp reached 6 during the 00-03 UT and the
Australian region Dst index decreased to -115 nT during 04 UT
on 5 Jul. Fast solar wind is still impacting Earth. However,
the magnitude of the IMF has decreased to 5 nT. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be unsettled during 6 Jul and quiet
during 7 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were enhanced
in the Northern Hemisphere and near predicted monthly values
in the Southern Hemisphere during 5 Jul. These conditions were
enhanced relative to the previous week, a positive effect of
the G2 class geomagnetic storm which started late 4 Jul, continuing
into early 5 Jul. Conditions are expected to return to near predicted
monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere and slightly depressed
in the Southern Hemisphere during the next 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were near predicted
monthly values throughout the Australian region during 5 Jul.
These conditions were enhanced relative to the previous week,
a positive effect of the G2 class geomagnetic storm occurring
during 4-5 Jul. The conditions were more strongly enhanced at
midlatitude stations. For example, preliminary T indices were
102 at Brisbane and 65 at Cocos Island. Similar conditions are
expected today, 6 Jul, though trending back toward mildly depressed,
especially at low latitude stations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 71700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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