[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 5 09:30:24 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul:  Low

Flares: C class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jul             06 Jul             07 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 4 Jul UT. AR 2378 
(S16E44) produced the largest flare of the day, a weak C1.0 event 
peaking at 00:08 UT. Solar flare activity is expected to be low 
with a small chance of an isolated M class flare during the next 
2 days. A large solar prominence erupted from the NE limb during 
18 to 19 UT on 4 Jul. The associated CME will not be geoeffective. 
The large filament (prominence) located near the solar meridian 
in the Northern Hemisphere has been very active and may soon 
disappear. Fast solar wind arrived at Earth during late 4 Jul. 
The solar wind speed increased gradually from 300 km/s to 400 
km/s during 00 to 17 UT, and thereafter rapidly, peaking at about 
600 km/s during 20 UT. The magnitude of the IMF increased to 
23 nT and the Bz component swung southward to -22 nT briefly 
during 19 UT. The magnitude of the IMF is presently about 12 
nT and the Bz component has been varying in the range +2 nT to 
-10 nT. Fast solar wind with Bz southward excursions is expected 
today, 5 Jul UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   01102243
      Cocos Island         8   01112243
      Darwin               8   11102243
      Townsville           8   11102243
      Learmonth            9   10112244
      Alice Springs        7   01002243
      Norfolk Island       6   00001243
      Culgoora             7   01102243
      Gingin               9   00002253
      Camden               7   01102243
      Canberra             6   00001143
      Melbourne           10   01002253
      Launceston           8   11102243    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     7   00004133
      Casey               12   12013352
      Mawson              31   01103267
      Davis               20   01123265

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           25   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1001 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jul    20    Active
06 Jul    12    Unsettled
07 Jul     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during the first half 
of 4 Jul UT. They reached minor storm levels (Kp=5) during the 
second half of 4 Jul due to the arrival of fast solar wind with 
Bz southward excursions. Geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to active during 5 Jul, decreasing to unsettled on 6 Jul UT.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere. 
Conditions are still mildly depressed in the Southern Hemisphere, 
especially at low latitude stations.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jul    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly 
depressed throughout the Australian region during 4 Jul UT. Darwin 
recorded a T index of 46, Sydney a T index of 67 and Hobart a 
T Index of 46. Similar conditions are expected today, 5 Jul UT.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 322 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    34700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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