[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 4 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 1251UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 112/63 115/66
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was moderate during 3 Jul UT. AR
2378 (S17E56) produced the largest flare of the day, an M1.5
event peaking at 12:51 UT. AR 2378 also produced five C class
flares. This region may produce another M class flare during
the next 3 days. The CME recorded leaving the NE limb late during
2 Jul will not be geoeffective. There was a filament eruption
in the SW quadrant during 3 UT on 3 Jul. No associated CME was
observed. Coronal Hole 675 has rotated into the Western Hemisphere.
Fast solar wind is expected to arrive later today and drive unsettled
to active geomagnetic conditions during 5 Jul. The solar wind
speed decreased from about 350 km/s to 300 km/s during 3 Jul.
The magnitude of the IMF was about 4 nT and the Bz component
fluctuated mostly in the range -2 nT to +2 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 01000000
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 0 00100000
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Norfolk Island 0 00000000
Culgoora 1 11100001
Gingin 0 00000000
Camden 1 01100001
Canberra 0 00000000
Melbourne 0 01000000
Launceston 0 01001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 11110000
Mawson 1 11101100
Davis 2 01211000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1010 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 7 Quiet
05 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
06 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 3 Jul UT. Coronal
Hole 675 has rotated into the Western Hemisphere. Fast solar
wind is expected to arrive later today and drive unsettled geomagnetic
conditions. Conditions may reach active levels during 5 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be near predicted monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere.
Conditions are still mildly depressed in the Southern Hemisphere,
especially at low latitude stations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed throughout the Australian region during 3 Jul UT. Cocos
Island recorded a T index of 37, Sydney a T index of 60 and Hobart
a T Index of 44. Hobart passed under an ionospheric trough at
about 15 UT this morning.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 46800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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