[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 4 09:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1.5     1251UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jul             05 Jul             06 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   112/63             112/63             115/66

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was moderate during 3 Jul UT. AR 
2378 (S17E56) produced the largest flare of the day, an M1.5 
event peaking at 12:51 UT. AR 2378 also produced five C class 
flares. This region may produce another M class flare during 
the next 3 days. The CME recorded leaving the NE limb late during 
2 Jul will not be geoeffective. There was a filament eruption 
in the SW quadrant during 3 UT on 3 Jul. No associated CME was 
observed. Coronal Hole 675 has rotated into the Western Hemisphere. 
Fast solar wind is expected to arrive later today and drive unsettled 
to active geomagnetic conditions during 5 Jul. The solar wind 
speed decreased from about 350 km/s to 300 km/s during 3 Jul. 
The magnitude of the IMF was about 4 nT and the Bz component 
fluctuated mostly in the range -2 nT to +2 nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   01000000
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               1   11100000
      Townsville           1   11100001
      Learmonth            0   00100000
      Alice Springs        0   01000000
      Norfolk Island       0   00000000
      Culgoora             1   11100001
      Gingin               0   00000000
      Camden               1   01100001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Melbourne            0   01000000
      Launceston           0   01001000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                1   11110000
      Mawson               1   11101100
      Davis                2   01211000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne            8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1010 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jul     7    Quiet
05 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
06 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 3 Jul UT. Coronal 
Hole 675 has rotated into the Western Hemisphere. Fast solar 
wind is expected to arrive later today and drive unsettled geomagnetic 
conditions. Conditions may reach active levels during 5 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere. 
Conditions are still mildly depressed in the Southern Hemisphere, 
especially at low latitude stations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jul    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jul    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly 
depressed throughout the Australian region during 3 Jul UT. Cocos 
Island recorded a T index of 37, Sydney a T index of 60 and Hobart 
a T Index of 44. Hobart passed under an ionospheric trough at 
about 15 UT this morning.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    46800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list