[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jul 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 3 09:30:24 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul:  Low

Flares: C class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jul             04 Jul             05 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 2 Jul UT. AR 2376 
(N13E32) produced the largest flare of the day, a C3.7 event 
peaking at 15:30 UT. There is a small chance of a weak M class 
flare during the next 3 days. Coronal Hole 675 is traversing the
central meridian. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase 
later today. SOHO LASCO images recorded a halo CME expanding from  
the western limb from 15 UT on 1 July. There were no associate  
flares or filaments on the visible disk. The CME was probably a  
far side event which might unsettle the geomagnetic field on 5 July. 
The solar wind speed decreased steadily from about 400 km/s to 
350 km/s during 2 Jul. The magnitude of the IMF is presently 
about 3 nT and the Bz component has been fluctuating mostly in 
the range -1 nT to +1 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   01100000
      Cocos Island         0   01010000
      Darwin               1   11100000
      Townsville           1   11100001
      Learmonth            1   01110000
      Alice Springs        0   00100000
      Norfolk Island       2   03000001
      Culgoora             1   01100001
      Gingin               0   10100000
      Camden               1   01100001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Melbourne            0   01100000
      Launceston           0   11000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   02110100
      Mawson               2   11220000
      Davis               52   02291100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           38   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2111 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jul     6    Quiet
05 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 2 Jul UT. Coronal 
Hole 675 is traversing the central meridian and solar wind speeds 
are expected to increase today. Intervals of unsettled geomagnetic 
activity are possible later today. The far side halo CME launched 
during 1 Jul may unsettle the geomagnetic field on 5 July.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation have almost 
recovered to near predicted monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere. 
Conditions are still mildly depressed in the Southern Hemisphere 
but trending gradually back toward near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jul    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      70
Jul      84
Aug      82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jul    55    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly 
depressed throughout the Australian region during 2 Jul. Midlatitude 
stations recorded daily T indices in the range of 50 to 60 and 
Darwin recorded a T index of 42. Hobart passed under an ionospheric 
trough at 15 UT this morning. Cocos Island was an exception, 
recording a daily T index of 80 due to a strong daytime enhancement.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 396 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    86100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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