[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 3 09:30:24 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 2 Jul UT. AR 2376
(N13E32) produced the largest flare of the day, a C3.7 event
peaking at 15:30 UT. There is a small chance of a weak M class
flare during the next 3 days. Coronal Hole 675 is traversing the
central meridian. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase
later today. SOHO LASCO images recorded a halo CME expanding from
the western limb from 15 UT on 1 July. There were no associate
flares or filaments on the visible disk. The CME was probably a
far side event which might unsettle the geomagnetic field on 5 July.
The solar wind speed decreased steadily from about 400 km/s to
350 km/s during 2 Jul. The magnitude of the IMF is presently
about 3 nT and the Bz component has been fluctuating mostly in
the range -1 nT to +1 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 01100000
Cocos Island 0 01010000
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 1 01110000
Alice Springs 0 00100000
Norfolk Island 2 03000001
Culgoora 1 01100001
Gingin 0 10100000
Camden 1 01100001
Canberra 0 00000000
Melbourne 0 01100000
Launceston 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 02110100
Mawson 2 11220000
Davis 52 02291100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2111 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jul 6 Quiet
05 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 2 Jul UT. Coronal
Hole 675 is traversing the central meridian and solar wind speeds
are expected to increase today. Intervals of unsettled geomagnetic
activity are possible later today. The far side halo CME launched
during 1 Jul may unsettle the geomagnetic field on 5 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation have almost
recovered to near predicted monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere.
Conditions are still mildly depressed in the Southern Hemisphere
but trending gradually back toward near predicted monthly values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed throughout the Australian region during 2 Jul. Midlatitude
stations recorded daily T indices in the range of 50 to 60 and
Darwin recorded a T index of 42. Hobart passed under an ionospheric
trough at 15 UT this morning. Cocos Island was an exception,
recording a daily T index of 80 due to a strong daytime enhancement.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 86100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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